ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List December 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST DECEMBER 2021

15 December 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in September 2021 and running through August 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List December 15, 2021 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through February 2022 indicates that water deficits will intensify in the Carolinas. Deficits elsewhere include Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas. Surpluses are forecast in Michigan and its southern neighbors, through New York to the Atlantic Coast.

Canada: The forecast through February 2022 indicates that water deficits will shrink in the southern portion of the Prairie Provinces, but vast areas of deficit will persist nationwide. Deficits are expected from Montreal to Québec City, surpluses from Toronto to Lake Huron and in southern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through February 2022 indicates that water deficits will increase in northern Mexico and will be exceptional in Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango. Areas of surplus include southern Durango through Morelos, and Honduras, Nicaragua, and Jamaica.

South America: The forecast through February 2022 indicates intense water deficits in the Orinoco River Watershed of Colombia and Venezuela, and from Chile’s southern half into Patagonian Argentina. Widespread surpluses will emerge in the northern Amazon, the Guianas, and Bolivia.

Europe: The forecast through February 2022 indicates intense water deficits in Portugal and southwestern Spain. Deficits elsewhere include Estonia, western Ukraine, Nouvelle-Aquitaine in France, and Tuscany, Italy. Areas of surplus include the northern U.K. and Norrbotten, Sweden.

Africa: The forecast through February 2022 indicates intense water deficits in southeastern Nigeria, Cameroon, and southeastern Ethiopia into Somalia. Intense surpluses will dominate from Kano State in Nigeria into Zinder, Niger, and in southeastern Sudan. Deficits will increase in Madagascar.

Middle East: The forecast through February 2022 indicates intense water deficits in Turkey between the upper Kizilirmak and Firat (Euphrates) Rivers, and moderate deficits in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. Areas of surplus include central Syria into Jordan and along Iran’s Caspian Coast.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through February 2022 indicates that widespread water deficits will emerge in Russia from Trans-Volga though Tyumen Oblast and into Kazakhstan. Deficits will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau, Altai Republic, and Irkutsk Oblast.

South Asia: The forecast through February 2022 indicates intense water surpluses in southern India and West Bengal. Deficits will emerge in western Rajasthan. Surpluses are also forecast for Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and northern Pakistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through February 2022 indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Indonesia and Pacific regions but remain widespread and intense in much of Southeast Asia. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the Lower Mekong River Basin.

East Asia: The forecast through February 2022 indicates widespread, extreme to exceptional water surpluses from Northeast China through the North China Plain and much of the vast Yellow River Basin, as well as in the northern Yangtze Basin and North Korea. Deficits in Southeast China will shrink.

Australia & New Zealand:  The forecast through February 2022 indicates that water surpluses will increase in eastern Australia, becoming widespread from Rockhampton, Queensland through the eastern Murray-Darling Basin. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional south of Rockhampton.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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