East Asia: Water surplus to persist in NE China, Yellow River, & N.K.

21 November 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through July 2022 indicates widespread extreme to exceptional water surpluses in Northeast China in the Songhua River Watershed and extending across the Russian border. This vast path of intense surplus will continue through the North China Plain, the Lower and Middle Yellow River (Huang He) Watershed, Shaanxi Province south of the Ordos Loop, and much of the river’s upper basin.

In the Yangtze River region, surpluses will be widespread in the northern portion of the basin. Anomalies will be exceptional in the lower watershed, along much of the river’s middle path, and in the drainage basin of Three Gorges Dam. Surpluses will also be exceptional along the Han River, a northern tributary of the Yangtze. Much of Tibet (Xizang) will see surpluses, exceptional tracing the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River.

Widespread, exceptional deficits are forecast from western Inner Mongolia into northern Gansu, moderating as they reach into Xinjiang (Uygur). In Southeast China, deficits are forecast in Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, and a small pocket in west-central Taiwan.

On the Korean Peninsula, surpluses will be widespread in the north with exceptional anomalies in the northeast. South Korean can expect normal conditions overall with some surpluses on the southeast coast. Surpluses are also forecast in pockets of central and southern Japan, but exceptional deficits are expected in Hokkaido and moderate deficits in northern Honshu. In Mongolia, surpluses are forecast in the north, east, and in the Hangayn Mountains, and mixed conditions in the Gobi Desert.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2022 indicates persistent, widespread, intense surpluses from Northeast China through the North China Plain and much of the vast Yellow River Basin. Transitional conditions are forecast in western Inner Mongolia. In the Yangtze River region, surpluses will remain widespread in the northern portion of the basin. Anomalies will be exceptional in the drainage area of Three Gorges Dam and extreme in the lower basin. South of Shanghai, moderate to severe surpluses will persist. Deficits will shrink in South and Southeast China, with moderate to exceptional anomalies from Guangdong into Fujian. Deficits will increase in northern Yunnan, but a pocket of moderate surplus will persist in the center of the province, and surpluses are forecast throughout most of Tibet. In North Korea, surpluses will become widespread and intense. Moderate to extreme deficits will emerge in pockets of central and southern Japan, and small pockets of surplus in Hokkaido. Surpluses are forecast in northern Mongolia.

From February through April 2022, widespread surpluses will persist in China in a distribution pattern like the prior three months, but anomalies in the Lower Yangtze Basin will nearly disappear. In Southeast China, deficits will nearly disappear. Severe deficits will persist in northern Yunnan and surpluses in central Yunnan. In northern China, moderate deficits will emerge in western Inner Mongolia, reaching into Mongolia and through northern Gansu. Moderate deficits are also forecast for northern Qinghai and eastern Xinjiang. In North Korea, surpluses will shrink considerably and moderate. Moderate deficits are forecast in southwestern South Korea, and in pockets of Honshu and Shikoku, Japan, but deficits will be severe in northern Kyushu. Surpluses will skirt Hokkaido’s shores.

The forecast for the final three months – May through July 2022 – indicates that surpluses will shrink and downgrade in China but persist in the northeast, the Yellow River Watershed, and western Tibet, and will increase in Yunnan. Deficits are forecast in eastern Heilongjiang, western Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and northern Yunnan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy snowfall blanketed Beijing in early November, forcing highway closures, suspending bus service to hundreds of routes, and reducing flights at the city’s two airports. Liaoning Province in Northeast China recorded its highest snowfall in over a century with the region’s capital, Shenyang, receiving 51 centimeters (20 inches). Road, rail, and air transportation services were disrupted. The winter deluge left one person dead in Inner Mongolia.

Widespread flooding wreaked havoc in central China this summer. The regional government recently approved relief funds of 3 billion yuan (US$480 million) for the provinces of Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Gansu. The party leader in Zhengzhou, capital of Henan Province where nearly 300 people died during the flooding, has been removed from office.

This year’s poor harvest in North Korea due to summer flooding, lack of fertilizer, and outdated farming practices is leading international analysts to warn that the nation is on the verge of starvation. While food security has been a seemingly perpetual issue in the Hermit Kingdom, this year could be especially hard on the average citizen. In prior years, farmers were allocated 40 percent of the harvest and the military 60 percent, whereas this year the food supply to military personnel is assured without limit, likely reducing farmers’ share.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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