ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List November 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST NOVEMBER 2021

15 November 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in August 2021 and running through July 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List November 15, 2021 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through January 2022 indicates that water deficits will shrink and surpluses will downgrade. Areas of deficit include Florida, the Upper Midwest, and the Carolinas. Widespread surpluses are forecast in Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, New York, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.

Canada: The forecast through January 2022 indicates that water deficits will shrink in the Prairie Provinces’ south, but vast areas of intense deficit will persist nationwide. Deficits are expected from Ottawa to Québec City. Surpluses will increase in southern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through January 2022 indicates that water deficits in north-central Mexico will intensify, becoming exceptional. Surpluses are forecast in a path through central Mexico and in many regions of Central America and the Caribbean.

South America: The forecast through January 2022 indicates widespread water surpluses in the northern Brazilian Amazon, southeastern states, and central Paraguay. Intense deficits will persist in the northern Orinoco River Watershed and southern Chile.

Europe: The forecast through January 2022 indicates that water deficits will shrink in the Nordic nations as surpluses increase. Intense deficits will persist in Estonia. Moderate surpluses are forecast in the U.K., Belgium, and northern France, and moderate deficits in western Ukraine, southern France, and Italy.

Africa: The forecast through January 2022 indicates that water deficits will shrink. Exceptional deficits are forecast from southeastern Nigeria into Cameroon and pockets of the Horn. Areas of surplus include southeastern Sudan, Kaduna and Kano States in Nigeria, and Western Cape, South Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through January 2022 indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade in the region, returning near-normal conditions to much of Iran. Deficits are forecast in central Turkey, northwestern and south-central Saudi Arabia, and pockets of Yemen and Georgia.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through January 2022 indicates that water deficits in Central Asia will shrink and moderate. Intense deficits will persist in the southern Urals and Central Siberian Plateau. Intense surpluses are forecast in the Lower Yenisei River region, southern Irkutsk, and east of Baikal.

South Asia: The forecast through January 2022 indicates widespread water surpluses in Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan , Pakistan, and many regions of India including West Bengal, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana, and southern states. Deficits in Afghanistan will downgrade.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through January 2022 indicates that widespread, intense water surpluses will persist in Southeast Asia. Surpluses will shrink in Malaysia and Sumatra but persist in many regions of Indonesia, New Guinea, and the Philippines.

East Asia: The forecast through January 2022 indicates persistent, widespread water surpluses in Northeast China, the Yellow River Basin, the northern Yangtze Basin, and North Korea. Deficits will persist in Guangdong. In Japan, widespread surplus conditions will change to deficit.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through January 2022 indicates water surpluses in Australia’s northern extremes, the Avon River Watershed, the Macintyre River region, from Canberra to the coast, and north of Auckland, New Zealand. Deficits will persist on New Zealand’s South Island.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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