Europe: Water deficits forecast in the Balkans

26 October 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2022 indicates that Northern Europe can expect exceptional water deficits in Finnish Lapland, central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed, Norway’s Vestland, and Estonia, downgrading as they reach through Latvia. Surpluses are forecast in Norrbotten region of Sweden and from Arctic Norway into Murmansk, Russia.

Elsewhere in European Russia, intense surpluses are expected in the Vychegda Lowland in the north and deficits in the Middle Volga River region and Trans-Volga (not shown).

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Framing the North Sea, deficits are forecast in Scotland and surpluses in eastern Denmark. Scattered pockets of surplus are expected in Central Europe, moderate overall but more intense at the intersection of Switzerland, Austria, and Italy, particularly north of Italy’s Lake Garda. Surpluses are also forecast in north-central and southeastern Romania. In Belgium, surpluses are forecast west of the Meuse River while intense deficits are expected east of the river. Deficits, primarily moderate, are also forecast in northeastern Belarus, a pocket in northwestern Poland, and a path bisecting Ukraine from Kyiv’ske Reservoir in the north to the Dniester River.

Widespread deficits of varying intensity are forecast in Italy and the Balkans, reaching north through Hungary and east into Romania and through Bulgaria. Regions where deficits are expected to be exceptional include Tuscany and Bologna in Italy; around Zabreb, Croatia; and Albania. Moderate deficits are forecast in southern France and a few pockets elsewhere in the nation, but deficits will be more intense reaching into northeastern Spain. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in southern Spain from Cordoba past Seville, and moderate deficits in Portugal’s southern tip.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through December indicates that deficits will shrink in the Nordic nations and Baltics but remain intense in Estonia, the Dalälven River Watershed in Sweden, and Norway’s Vestland. Surpluses will persist in Murmansk, Arctic Norway, southern Norrbotten, pockets along the eastern Gulf of Bothnia, and eastern Denmark. In European Russia, anomalies will shrink but surpluses will persist in the Vychegda Lowland and north of Rybinsk Reservoir and will re-emerge in Lipetsk Oblast. Deficits in Scotland will shrink. Many regions in Central and Eastern Europe and the Iberian Peninsula can expect near-normal conditions as anomalies shrink. However, pockets of surplus will linger in Central Europe, northern Romania, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southeastern Ukraine where anomalies will be extreme. In Southern Europe, deficits will shrink and moderate in France and Italy but will increase in the Balkans, Hungary, southwestern Romania, and Bulgaria. Anomalies will be exceptional surrounding Zagreb, Croatia.

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From January through March 2022, deficits in Northern Europe will shrink but intense anomalies will persist in the western Dalälven River Watershed and Västerbotten, Sweden, and Finnish Lapland. Surpluses will persist in the Vychegda Lowlands, Rybinsk Reservoir, Murmansk, Arctic Norway, and Norrbotten, Sweden. Moderate surpluses will emerge in southern and coastal Norway, southern Sweden and southern Finland, from St. Petersburg to Bryansk in Russia, Lithuania, Belarus, and pockets of eastern Poland. Surpluses will increase in Central Europe, particularly Switzerland. Deficits will shrink from the Balkans to the Black Sea and will emerge in northeastern Spain.

The forecast for April through June 2022 indicates deficits from Ukraine through Bulgaria and pockets in Estonia, Latvia, Lapland, and central Sweden. Areas of surplus include Murmansk, Vychedga, northern Sweden, and pockets of eastern Poland.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Energy prices in Norway are soaring as rainfall deficits have left hydroelectric reservoirs at their lowest seasonal levels in the last ten years. Nearly all of the nation’s power production is generated through hydropower. Shortages are likely to affect energy users in the U.K. as well which began accessing Nordic power through the world’s longest undersea power cable, the North Sea Link, at the beginning of October.

Corn and sunflower crop yields in Hungary’s Tolna County are lower than average this year due to drought. Yield per hectare for corn is 43 percent lower than in previous years and sunflower yield is down about 25 percent. The oleic acid content of the seeds, the sunflower oil, is also lower.

Early October rainfall broke records in Italy’s Liguria region as 36 inches (925 mm) drenched Rossiglione, a town southwest of Milan. In just 12-hours, 30 inches had fallen, topping the European record. Several rivers overflowed their banks, a bridge was washed out, roads blocked, and rail service suspended.

Losses from July flooding in Western Europe reached US$11 billion as calculated by a risk assessment firm associated with the global insurance industry.

ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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