Africa: Water surplus will persist in SE Sudan

22 October 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2022 indicates widespread water deficits across northern Africa with exceptional deficits in many regions including southern Morocco, Algeria, southern Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt.

Surpluses are forecast in large pockets of the Sahel and will be extreme to exceptional around Lake Débo in the Inner Niger Delta of central Mali and extreme in southeastern Niger’s Zinder region. Southeastern Sudan can also expect surpluses, particularly intense between the White Nile and the Atbara Rivers and reaching into Eritrea.

A patchwork of water conditions is forecast in West Africa including deficits from Guinea Bissau east into Burkina Faso, and pockets of moderate surplus scattered in nations along the northern Gulf of Guinea.

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In Nigeria, surpluses are expected in the southwest and in the east at the intersection of the Benue and Gongola Rivers. Exceptional deficits are forecast in northeastern Nigeria downgrading slightly as they reach into Chad, and deficits will be exceptional in the nation’s southeast quadrant reaching across central Cameroon. Generally moderate deficits will extend from southern Cameroon through western Angola, but a few pockets will be more intense including in Equatorial Guinea and surrounding Lubango in southwestern Angola.

In the heart of the continent, moderate to severe deficits are forecast from eastern Central African Republic into western South Sudan and through the northern half of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), becoming extreme to exceptional in northeastern DRC between the Upper Mbomou and Uele Rivers. Some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in central Uganda.

In the Horn of Africa, deficits are forecast in southern Eritrea, Djibouti, western Somaliland, and central Ethiopia including Addis Ababa. Exceptional surpluses along with transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast for the Nugaal Valley in Somalia and surpluses of lesser intensity from there to the Shabelle river. In East Africa, moderate surpluses are forecast in several large pockets in Tanzania

In southern Africa, surpluses are forecast in the Kalahari Desert of eastern Namibia and Botswana and surrounding Lake Xau in central Botswana. Western Cape, South Africa, can expect surpluses and pockets are also forecast north of the Orange River in Northern Cape, in Eastern Cape, and from northern Orange Free State to Pretoria.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates deficits in the continent’s northwest quadrant, moderate overall but exceptional in northwestern Algeria and from Mauritania into Niger’s western corner. Surpluses in West Africa will shrink though moderate anomalies are forecast along the northern Gulf of Guinea. From southeastern Nigeria into Cameroon, intense deficits will increase while intense surpluses re-emerge in north-central Nigeria joining those in Zinder, Niger. Surpluses will increase in northern Chad and northeastern Niger. In Sudan, surpluses will persist in the southeast and into Eritrea, but deficits are expected in the northeast. Deficits will downgrade in Africa’s Horn and surpluses will persist in Nugaal. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in northern DRC and Central African Republic. Surpluses will shrink and moderate in Tanzania, reaching into its northern neighbors. In southern Africa, deficits will retreat. Surpluses are forecast in Western Cape and north of the Orange River, Botswana and Namibia, and southern Mozambique. Exceptional deficits will skirt Angola’s southeastern coast.

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The forecast for January through March 2022 indicates normal water conditions in much of northern, central, and southern Africa. Deficits will shrink somewhat in Nigeria and Cameroon but will intensify in central Sudan. Surpluses are forecast along the northern Gulf of Guinea and will persist in southern Sudan while transitioning east of the Blue Nile. Deficits will linger in northern DRC and central Ethiopia and will intensify in a pocket of central Somalia near the Ethiopian border. Surpluses in southern Africa will shrink considerably, persisting in Western Cape and a few other pockets in South Africa.

In the final quarter – April through June 2022 – deficits are forecast across North Africa and surpluses in north-central Nigeria, from southeastern Sudan into Eritrea, and in Nugaal, Somalia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought in southwestern Angola has pushed over 1.3 million people into food insecurity according to a recent assessment sponsored by a multi-agency partnership, with that number likely to rise. The estimate includes 114,000 children under the age of five currently with or expected to suffer acute malnutrition in the next 12 months.

Kenya, too, is experiencing food insecurity due to drought in its northern and eastern regions that has reduced crops and stunted livestock. Precipitation in those areas was around half the normal, with some counties receiving as little as 26 percent. The World Food Programme warns that, by November, 2.4 million people could go hungry, triple last year’s numbers. Locusts, floods, and COVID-19 have also contributed to the problem.

Weeks of intense rainfall produced flooding in South Sudan, impacting 700,000 people. Many evacuated to higher ground with their livestock as floodwaters submerged farmland, but some were stranded on pockets of land that became islands as the water rose. Three consecutive years of flooding have left some parts of the nation with limited coping capacity. The government has approved a US$10 million relief package.

In Uganda, persistent rainfall has caused flooding and landslides that destroyed homes, health centers, and water facilities, raising the threat of water-borne diseases.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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