Europe: Water surplus will increase in Germany

22 September 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits in Estonia, Latvia, and central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed. Intense deficits are also forecast in Västerbotten County in Sweden, Vestland in Norway, and Finnish Lapland. Severe deficits are expected in Sweden’s southern tip and moderate deficits in northeastern Belarus.

Surpluses are forecast from Murmansk, Russia into Arctic Norway and along the western shore of the White Sea. Northern Sweden’s Norrbotten region can also expect surpluses as can a pocket across the Gulf of Bothnia in Finland.

Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202106-202205_12mo_twitter.png

In European Russia, intense surpluses are expected in the Vychegda Lowland in the north and moderate pockets south of Lake Ilmen in the west and Tula Oblast. Deficits are forecast in the Middle Volga River region.

Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast throughout much of Germany south of Berlin, and in Czech Republic, pockets of eastern Poland, central Belgium and nearby regions of northern France, and eastern Switzerland into Austria and the Italian Alps. Surpluses are also expected in northern and eastern Romania and southeastern Ukraine.

Scotland can expect deficits of varying intensity while some small pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in other regions of the U.K. and in Ireland. Extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast for Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna, Italy, with deficits of varying intensity in northwestern Italy. Intense deficits are expected in Sicily, Sardinia, and a pocket south of Naples. Deficits will be widespread and intense in Hungary. Generally moderate deficits are expected in several regions in the Balkans including Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, North Macedonia, and central Bulgaria. Deficits will be moderate to exceptional in Greece’s Central Macedonia region and moderate in the Peloponnese Peninsula.

Deficits are forecast in pockets of central France and in the south leading into Spain, and from Madrid past Seville and into Portugal’s southern tip. Anomalies will be exceptional north of Barcelona. Other areas with a forecast of deficit include southern Belgium and a pocket in northwestern Poland.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through November indicates that deficits will shrink considerably in Southern Europe. In the Nordic region and the Baltics, however, deficits will shrink somewhat but remain widespread in Norway, Sweden, Estonia, and Latvia and intense anomalies will persist in many areas. Deficits are also forecast for north-central Belarus, the Mezen River region in Russia, and the Middle Volga River watershed. Surpluses will persist in Murmansk, Arctic Sweden, along the White Sea, pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia, Russia’s Vychegda Lowlands, and in southeastern Ukraine and near Moldova. In the U.K., deficits are forecast for Scotland and some surpluses in East Anglia. Surpluses, primarily moderate, will increase in Central Europe in Germany south of Berlin, and the Netherlands, northern Belgium, western Hungary, northeastern France, and from eastern Switzerland into Austria and northern Italy. Surpluses are also expected in northern and southeastern Romania and eastern Bulgaria. Deficits are expected in western Hungary, eastern Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, central and southwestern Bulgaria, and near France’s border with Spain.

Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202106-202205_3mo_twitter.png

From December 2021 through February 2022, anomalies will shrink and downgrade. Intense deficits will persist in the western Dalälven River Watershed and Västerbotten, Sweden. Deficits of lesser intensity are forecast in Finnish Lapland and the Middle Volga River Watershed north of the river. Moderate deficits are expected in Catalonia, Spain and some small pockets in southern France, Emilia-Romagna, Italy, and central Bulgaria. Severe deficits will persist east of Zagreb, Croatia.

The forecast for March through May 2022 includes surpluses in southern Norway, Murmansk and southwestern Russia, Ireland and the U.K., Switzerland, Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia. Intense deficits will persist in pockets of the Nordic nations, moderate deficits in pockets of the western Mediterranean, and moderate deficits will increase in the eastern Balkans.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Summer 2021 has been Germany’s wettest in a decade according to the nation’s weather service. Precipitation in July was 40 percent above the 1961-1990 average and 25 percent over 1991-2020 for the month, resulting in flooding and landslides that claimed 180 lives.

Heavy rainfall in early September produced flash flooding in northeastern Spain. The deluge dropped 250 liters per square meter (45 gallons per square yard) on the town of Alcanar over 12 hours, disrupting rail travel and transforming streets into rivers that quickly ushered over a dozen vehicles into the Mediterranean Sea.

Fields in Gard Region of southern France were left submerged and several villages suffered flood damages during flash flooding in mid-September that dumped two months of rain in just three hours. Rail service between Nîmes and Montpellier was halted due to damaged track and the A9 motorway was temporarily closed. Hundreds of emergency personnel were deployed to help with airlifts, rescues, and evacuations, and schools were closed.

Dry weather in Scotland has left reservoirs at their lowest in 20 years, prompting water authorities to urge consumers to conserve, though no rationing has been imposed. Lanarkshire residents are complaining of brown, gritty water and one whiskey maker has ordered a temporary stoppage in production, citing water shortages,

Europe’s wine production is expected to be lower this year primarily due to spring frosts but with drought a contributing factor. The major producers - France, Italy, and Spain - will likely see a drop of 18 percent compared to last year. In France, a March heat wave curled vines and August wildfires blazed through vineyards.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags