South America: Widespread water deficits will persist in Chile

17 September 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits across northern Colombia and Venezuela throughout the vast Orinoco River watershed. Deficits will also be intense in Colombia’s southern corner.

Elsewhere across the northern arc of the continent, surpluses of varying intensity are expected spanning the central border of Ecuador and Colombia including Quito; in southwestern Colombia including Cali; in Venezuela’s southern tip reaching across the border into Brazil; in northeastern Venezuela including the Orinoco Delta; and in northern regions of the Guianas, particularly Guyana.

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Brazil can expect intense deficits in the west; surpluses reaching exceptional intensity north of Manaus in the Amazon region; and moderate to extreme deficits in the central west and southeast. Deficits in the west will span the Peruvian border. In Bolivia, deficits are forecast in the center of the country from La Paz to Sucre and in the south where anomalies will be exceptional in the southwest corner of the nation. Neighboring Paraguay will also see deficits throughout much of its eastern half, moderate overall.

Nearly all of Chile will experience deficits with exceptional deficits dominating the nation from La Serena through Valparaiso and Santiago to the Gulf of Corcovado. Deficits in southern Patagonia will extend across the border, eventually downgrading as they reach through Argentina. Deficits will be intense in Tierra del Fuego and the Falklands. Elsewhere in Argentina, deficits are forecast in San Juan Province in the west, Corrientes Province in the northeast, and Buenos Aires Province north of the Salado River and in pockets of the south. Anomalies will be extreme in pockets of San Juan and severe in Corrientes.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through November indicates that widespread deficits observed in the prior three months will shrink considerably. In Brazil, intense deficits will persist in northwestern Pará and Amapá, and will emerge in the nation’s eastern tip with deficits of lesser intensity reaching through the northeastern states. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to persist in the southeast through Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo State, and Paraná. Moderate surpluses will increase in the northern Amazon Basin, exceptional surpluses surrounding Manaus will downgrade, and mild to moderate surpluses will emerge in pockets of the southern Amazon Basin.

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In northern nations, deficits are forecast from Medellin, Colombia into western Venezuela and will be exceptional in several pockets including northeast of Bogota, Colombia and surrounding Merida, Venezuela. Deficits will also be intense in the Japurá (Caquetá) River Watershed in southern Colombia. Surpluses are forecast from the Orinoco Delta in Venezuela through northern Guyana and western Suriname; near French Guiana’s capital, Cayenne; and pockets in southern Venezuela and west-central Colombia. Surpluses are also forecast in Ecuador northeast of Quito while deficits are expected in several regions, exceptional near Guayaquil.

Pockets of mild to moderate deficit are expected throughout much of Peru but anomalies will be more intense in Ucayali Region in the east and Arequipa Region in the south. Surpluses are expected near Cusco and north of Lake Titicaca. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in central and southern Bolivia and eastern Paraguay. Deficits are expected throughout much of Chile with exceptional deficits in several regions including Biobío. Those deficits will reach across the border into Argentina, while moderate to severe deficits increase in Buenos Aires Province. Deficits will be moderate along the northern Paraná River, becoming severe on its approach to the Rio de la Plata. Surpluses in central Argentina will shrink.

From December 2021 through February 2022, deficits are forecast in many regions of Chile, but the extent of intense deficit will shrink, persisting in Biobío Region and into southern Argentina. Moderate deficits are forecast along Argentina’s southern rivers, in Corrientes Province in the northeast, and a lingering pocket in southern Buenos Aires Province. In Brazil, moderate deficits are expected in Rio Grande do Sul, moderate to severe deficits in Paraná, and moderate surpluses in northern Pará. Moderate surpluses will persist in northeastern Venezuela and some pockets of deficit in the northwest and in Casanare Department in Colombia.

The final quarter – March through May 2022 – indicates deficits in northern Venezuela’s Guárico River Watershed, a tributary of the Orinoco, and in pockets of northern Chile and its border regions with Bolivia and Argentina. Surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast in the Orinoco Delta, pockets in the central Amazon Basin, and Catamarca and Córdoba Provinces in Argentina.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Chile’s megadrought continues to impact agriculture, industry, and power production. In late August, the government declared an agricultural emergency in Coquimbo, Valparaiso, O'Higgins, and Maule, regions that joined Los Lagos, drought-designated since April. The official classification releases over US$10 million to help farmers in the affected areas.

Water shortages are negatively impacting the nation’s mining industry which accounts for 10 per cent of Chile’s gross domestic product. Industry analysts estimate that this year’s copper production will be down by as much as 200,000 tons. New policy framework by Chile’s government directs the industry to reduce water use from glaciers, rivers and lakes from a current 18 per cent of total water use to 10 per cent by 2030 and 5 per cent by 2050.

In July, hydroelectric production in Chile dropped from 26 per cent of the nation’s power generation to 14 per cent while coal power increased to 39 per cent compared to 34 per cent last year. Chile is increasingly looking to solar and wind power in an effort to reach its goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.

A persistent blob of warm water east of New Zealand, the “Southern Blob,” has been cited as one contributing factor to Chile’s decades-long drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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