Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in C. Asia will downgrade

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in C. Asia will downgrade

23 July 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and southwestern Kazakhstan on the Caspian Sea. Farther north in Kazakhstan, severe deficits are forecast in Aktobe Region.

Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Ishim River Watershed of northern Kazakhstan and in the nation’s southeastern corner near Lake Balkhash. Intense surpluses are also forecast for central Tajikistan, the southern portion of the Fergana Valley, and in Kyrgyzstan southeast of Lake Issyk-Kul.

West of the Ural Mountains in Russia, surpluses are forecast in the coastal Arctic and the Vychegda Lowlands, but deficits are expected in the Upper Mezen River region, much of the Pechora River Watershed, and in Trans-Volga. Deficits are expected throughout most regions of the Urals as well. East of the Urals, intense deficits are forecast in the Tura River region, particularly around Tyumen, and in the north on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob. The Lower Yenisei River region is also forecast to experience deficits and some pockets of intense deficit are predicted in the watersheds of its eastern tributaries, the two Tunguska Rivers, but surpluses are expected in most of the remaining Yenisei Watershed and will include exceptional anomalies. Exceptional surpluses are also forecast between the Olenyok and Markha Rivers in the northeastern Central Siberian Plateau, but exceptional deficits are expected in the middle reaches of the Vilyuy River, a tributary of the Lena River, including near the Vilyuy Reservoir.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September indicates that deficits will increase in Russia’s Pechora River Watershed in the northwest and will downgrade from Trans-Volga to Tyumen. Exceptional deficits will increase on the middle banks of the Gulf of Ob but conditions east of the Gulf will begin to normalize. Surpluses will persist in the eastern extent of the Ob River Watershed and in much of the Yenisei Watershed, though its eastern tributaries, the Tunguskas, will have pockets of exceptional deficit. In the Central Siberian Plateau exceptional surpluses will persist between the Olenek and Markha Rivers, but exceptional deficits are expected in the middle reaches of the Vilyuy River, a Lena tributary. From southeastern Sakha Republic to the Sea of Okhotsk, intense deficits are forecast.

Deficits will shrink and downgrade in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and in Kazakhstan near the Caspian Sea and through Aktobe Region. Surpluses will persist in northern and southeastern Kazakhstan, central Tajikistan, and eastern Kyrgyzstan.

From October through December, deficits will shrink, persisting in Russia in the Mezen and Pechora Watersheds, the central Banks of the Gulf of Ob, pockets in the watersheds of the two Tunguska Rivers, a pocket in the middle reaches of the Vilyuy River, north of Lake Baikal, and near the Sea of Okhotsk. Surpluses will remain intense in the Olenek and Markha Rivers but will downgrade somewhat in the eastern Ob Watershed and in the Yenisei. Surpluses will persist in northern Kazakhstan and increase in the southeast. Surpluses are also forecast for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The forecast for the final months – January through March 2022 – indicates a distribution of anomalies much like the prior forecast. However, deficits will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau and emerge near the central Caspian Coast in Kazakhstan and in central Turkmenistan, and surpluses will emerge west of the Aral Sea.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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