ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List July 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST JULY 2021

15 July 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in April 2021 and running through March 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List July 15, 2021 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through September indicates widespread water deficits in the West, Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Deficits will be exceptional in NorCal and the Pacific Northwest but will downgrade in the Dakotas. Widespread surpluses will persist in Gulf Coast States.

Canada: The forecast through September indicates widespread water deficits throughout many regions of the Canadian provinces, exceptional in many areas in the east including Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City, and moderate to exceptional in the southern regions of the Prairie Provinces.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through September indicates that water deficits in northern Mexico will retreat and surpluses will emerge in Sonora and Durango. In the south, surpluses will retreat as generally mild deficits emerge. Deficits will also emerge in El Salvador.

South America: The forecast through September indicates widespread deficits in Brazil south of the Amazon. Other areas of deficit include northern Colombia through northwestern Venezuela, central Peru, and much of Chile. Deficits will be intense on the Paraguay and Paraná Rivers.

Europe: The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will increase in Norway, Sweden and northern Germany. Intense deficits will persist in Estonia and Latvia, and will emerge on the Rhine River in Switzerland. Deficits will moderate in France and northern Italy. Surpluses will persist in the eastern and southern Balkans.

Africa: The forecast through September indicates widespread water deficits in North Africa and normal conditions in the Sahel. Intense deficits will shrink in Angola, Namibia, and Northern Cape, South Africa but will emerge in eastern Kenya and Zambia.

Middle East: The forecast through September indicates that the extent of exceptional water deficit will shrink but widespread deficits will persist, and surpluses will nearly disappear. Intense deficits are forecast for central Saudi Arabia, northeastern Turkey, and Iran near the southern Persian Gulf.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through September indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Kazakhstan. In Russia, deficits will downgrade in Trans-Volga. Surpluses will persist in the eastern Ob Watershed and in much of the Yenisei Watershed.

South Asia: The forecast through September indicates water surpluses in India’s southern half and West Bengal, Bangladesh, central Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Deficits will shrink in India’s Far Northeast. Exceptional deficits are forecast in Baluchistan Province, Pakistan reaching into Afghanistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will shrink considerably in Southeast Asia and remain widespread elsewhere, persisting with intensity in the Lesser Sunda Islands. Deficits will emerge in western Thailand and pockets of western Cambodia.

East Asia: The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade overall but remain widespread in Northeast China and the Yangtze Watershed. Deficits in Southeast China will shrink, returning Taiwan to normal conditions.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through September indicates that water surpluses in southeastern Australia will shrink, persisting primarily in northeastern New South Wales. Exceptional deficits will emerge in western Tasmania, but deficits in New Zealand will shrink considerably.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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