South America: Widespread water deficits in Brazil

24 June 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2022 indicates that exceptional water deficits will be widespread in the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, and large pockets are forecast in Amapá, Pará, Piauí, Amazonas, and southern Mato Grosso. Exceptional deficits are also forecast along the Paraguay River through its namesake and the Paraná River through Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina. Mild to moderate deficits are expected in many other regions of Brazil south of the Amazon, while areas of mild surplus are forest north of the river.

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Across the northern arc of the continent, intense deficits are expected from northwestern Venezuela in the region of the Orinoco’s tributaries through Colombia to the Pacific Coast, and from Colombia’s southern corner into Brazil at the confluence of the Caquetá and Japurá Rivers. French Guiana can expect deficits, particularly in the south. Areas with a forecast of surplus include the central border region of Ecuador and Colombia, southwestern Colombia, southern Venezuela and the northeast around the Orinoco Delta, and the northern border region shared by Guyana and Suriname.

Much of central Peru will be dominated by deficits of varying intensity; moderate deficits are expected in the nation’s southern corner; and surpluses are forecast for a pocket in the central Peruvian Andes and from Cusco in the southeast into Bolivia. Central and eastern Bolivia can expect deficits. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for nearly all of Chile with exceptional anomalies in pockets of the north and around the Gulf of Corcovado in the south reaching into Argentina. Near Santiago and Valparaiso deficits will be extreme to exceptional.

In Argentina, deficits are forecast in pockets of the Chaco in the north, north of the Salado River in Buenos Aires Province, in the Chubut River and Chico River regions in southern Argentina, and in Tierra del Fuego and the Falklands. Areas of surplus include northern La Pampa Province and pockets in northern San Luis and Mendoza Provinces.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates widespread intense deficits in Brazil south of the Amazon while the region to the north normalizes, leaving a few lingering pockets of surplus. Deficits will be exceptional in many areas including the Purus River Watershed in the west, Pará, Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, and São Paulo States. Notably, exceptional deficits are forecast along the Paraguay River through its namesake and along the Paraná River through Brazil and Argentina. Deficits will shrink somewhat and downgrade in Venezuela and Columbia but will remain widespread with persistent, intense pockets that include the metropolitan areas of Caracas, Merida, Bogota, and Medellin. Surpluses are forecast from Quito, Ecuador across the border into Colombia; northeastern Venezuela and the Orinoco Delta; and northern Guyana into Suriname. Surpluses in southern Venezuela will downgrade as deficits emerge.

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Surpluses will nearly disappear from Loreto in northern Peru but will increase in the south from Huancayo past Cusco into Bolivia. Deficits will continue to dominate central Peru though the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink, and deficits will persist in many regions of Bolivia. Deficits of varying intensity are expected throughout much of Chile. In Argentina, deficits are forecast in the northeast and in Buenos Aires Province north of the Salado River, and, while shrinking and downgrading, will remain intense in Tierra del Fuego and the Falklands. Surpluses will persist in La Pampa Province, central Buenos Aires Province, pockets in San Luis and Cordoba Provinces, and pockets in the Andes in the nation’s northwest.

From September through November, normal water conditions are expected to return to much of the continent. However, exceptional deficits are forecast for west-central Pará, Brazil, and Bolivia’ southern tip. Deficits of generally lesser intensity are expected in Amapá and pockets in Brazil’s northeast and southwest. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast near Caracas, Venezuela, and moderate deficits in Colombia’s Caquetá Department in the south. Deficits elsewhere include eastern and southern Peru, central Bolivia, Chile, northeastern Argentina, and Tierra del Fuego and the Falklands. Anomalies will be mild to moderate overall but more intense in Peru’s Ucayali Department in the east, northern Chile into Argentina, and Tierra del Fuego and the Falklands. Areas of surplus include northeastern Venezuela, Cusco in Peru, and northern La Pampa and San Luis Provinces in Argentina.

In the final quarter – December 2021 through February 2022 – normal conditions are expected overall with generally moderate deficits near Caracas, in south-central Colombia, in much of Chile, and in Paraná, Brazil. Exceptional deficits will persist in Bolivia’s southern corner and severe deficits in Tierra del Fuego and the Falklands. Moderate surpluses will linger southeast of Cusco and in pockets of the Argentine Andes.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Central and southern regions of Brazil continue to experience drought conditions that threaten agriculture, power supply, and shipping.

One major sugar producer anticipates a drop in cane crushing of nearly 9 percent. Experts expect the second of three corn crops in the 2020-2021 growing season to be 14 percent lower than last year, losses that will contribute to what may be the lowest total annual production since the 2017-2018 season. Minais Gerais, the nation’s largest coffee-growing state, has been hard-hit by drought, helping to push coffee prices up nearly 70 percent in the last year.

While the nation’s lawmakers rush to assure that power rationing will not be instituted to address shortfalls in hydroelectric production, natural gas imports will increase to feed thermoelectric power plants. With hydroelectric dams already at their lowest levels in 91 years, things are likely to get even worse as the country approaches its dry season in August.

Water levels on the Paraná River near the Brazil-Paraguay border are 8.5 meters (30 feet) below average, slowing cargo transport along the major waterway and raising shipping costs.

Persistent rainfall over the last several months has left much of Guyana as well as nearby regions in neighboring Suriname, Venezuela, and Brazil, flooded. Guyana’s parliament expects to appropriate $5 million in relief for hygiene, water, and seed supplies. Thousands of livestock and bird deaths were reported, and gold and diamond mine pits flooded. In Suriname, water levels remained at window height in mid-June. Authorities planned calibrated water releases from the Afobaka dam to prevent a breach.

A bill that would increase punishment for illegal water extraction and pollution has cleared drought-plagued Chile’s lower house of congress.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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