Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits forecast for Siberia

26 May 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits in southwestern Kazakhstan on the Caspian Sea. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Exceptional surpluses are forecast in a pocket on Turkmenistan’s central Caspian Coast; a large pocket in the northern Kyzylkum Desert from Uzbekistan into Kazakhstan; the Ishim River Watershed of northern Kazakhstan; and south of Lake Balkhash. Intense surpluses are also forecast for central Tajikistan and the southern portion of the Fergana Valley. Kyrgyzstan can expect surpluses of lesser intensity east of Lake Issyk-Kul.

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West of the Ural Mountains in Russia, surpluses are forecast in the coastal Arctic and the Vychegda Lowlands, but deficits are expected in the Upper Mezen River region and much of the Pechora River Watershed. East of the Urals, intense deficits are forecast on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob, in the Taz River region, and the Lower Yenisei area and upper reaches of its eastern tributaries. Much of the Central Siberian Plateau will experience deficits though exceptional surpluses are forecast at the eastern edge between the Olenyok and Markha Rivers. Widespread surpluses are expected in the Upper Ob River region, much of the Tom River Watershed, and around Irkutsk west of Lake Baikal.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast from the Alden River Watershed (an eastern tributary of the Lena River) to the Sea of Okhotsk (not shown).

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through July indicates that deficits will emerge in Russia’s Pechora River Watershed in the northwest and in a pocket near Tyumen. Deficits will shrink somewhat on the middle banks of the Gulf of Ob and in the Lower Yenisei River region but will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses will shrink overall in the Ob River Watershed and intense deficits will emerge in a pocket of the Middle Ob surrounding Surgut. A large block of exceptional surplus is expected to emerge at the eastern edge of the Central Siberian Plateau between the Olenek and Markha Rivers. Deficits in the Alden River region (not shown) will moderate.

Central_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_202102-202201_3mo_twitter.png

Deficits will also moderate in western Kazakhstan on the Caspian Sea, and generally mild to moderate deficits will increase in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Surpluses will persist in northern and southeastern Kazakhstan, central Tajikistan, and the Kyzylkum Desert, but will shrink in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

From August through October, deficits will shrink in the Central Siberian Plateau; persist in the Pechora and Mezen Watersheds, across the Gulf of Ob and the Taz and Lower Yenisei River regions; and moderate in the Yenisei’s eastern tributaries. Transitional conditions are forecast for the Kyzylkum Desert and near Lake Balkhash. A few pockets of moderate deficit will persist in southwestern Kazakhstan near the Caspian, and deficits in eastern Uzbekistan will intensify, becoming severe to extreme.

The forecast for the final months – November 2021 through January 2022 – indicates that intense deficits will persist near the Gulf of Ob and the Lower Taz and Yenisei River regions and will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau and in the Lower Lena River area. Surpluses will shrink in the Olenek River region nearby as transitions occur. Deficits in Central Asia will nearly disappear and surpluses will shrink.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In early May, heavy rainfall in southwestern Kyrgyzstan’s Osh Region left some of Kara-Suu district’s 350,000 residents without electricity when a local power plant flooded. Families in the Kara-Kulja district were relocated after flooding there destroyed homes. A dam in Batken Region, also in the southwest, leaked, blocking a section of a regional connector road and forcing 1,500 people to evacuate. Later in the month mudflows in Talas Region contaminated village wells in Bakai-Ata district leaving residents without drinking water.

Flooding and mudslides left at least eight dead in Tajikistan, damaging homes, bridges, and roads, and affecting an estimated 25,000 people. In the nation’s capital, Dushanbe, cars were swept away along submerged streets.

In Turkmenistan, officials are increasingly concerned about dry conditions after April precipitation that was much lower than normal and temperatures a few degrees higher. Due to diminished snowpack in the Pamir Mountains, the Amu Darya River has about 60 percent less water this spring than in 2020. The Tuyamoyin reservoir is at dead volume - not enough volume to drain through gravity. Shortage of irrigation water is leading to disputes between farmers.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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