Australia & New Zealand: Water surplus will persist in Eastern NSW

Australia & New Zealand: Water surplus will persist in Eastern NSW

26 April 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December 2021 indicates surpluses, primarily moderate, in southeastern Australia from the eastern Murray-Darling Basin to the coast. Deficits are expected in coastal Queensland north of Townsville and farther south near Rockhampton, but a few pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in the Cape York Peninsula of Far North Queensland.

Surpluses are also forecast in Top End, Northern Territory in the region of the Daly and Katherine Rivers.

In Western Australia, deficits are expected on the coast in the Kimberley region and from the Great Sandy Desert to the coast near Broome. Surpluses and transitional conditions are forecast from the western Great Victoria Desert to the Gibson Desert. In the state’s southwestern corner, intense surpluses are forecast in the Avon River Basin east of Perth and deficits will skirt the coast near Albany.

Pockets of surplus are expected in the Simpson Desert in the center of the nation, in western South Australia, and near the Lower Murray River.

In New Zealand, deficits are forecast in the Waitaki River Watershed of South Island, becoming extreme near the three glacial lakes, Pukaki, Tekapo, and Ōhau. Other areas with a forecast of deficit include the island’s east coast through Christchurch, and Lake Taupo and the Waikato River region in North Island. Moderate surpluses are expected in New Caledonia near the capital, Nouméa.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through June indicates that widespread surpluses of varying intensity will persist in southeastern Australia from the eastern Murray-Darling Basin to the coast. Deficits will be extreme in the MacIntyre River region north of Armidale, New South Wales, and moderate along the Lachlan River and in the Australian Alps. Exceptional surpluses will persist approaching the mouth of the Murray River. Conditions in Queensland will return to normal overall as deficits retreat. Surpluses will persist in Top End, Northern Territory near Katherine, shrinking somewhat elsewhere in the region. In Western Australia, intense surpluses will persist in the Avon River Watershed east of Perth. Surpluses will re-emerge from the Victoria Desert into the Gibson Desert, and in western South Australia. Deficits in the nation’s southwestern corner will retreat.

In New Zealand, moderate to severe deficits are forecast reaching exceptional intensity in the glacial lakes of the south. Anomalies in New Caledonia will downgrade, becoming mild.

From July through September, surpluses will moderate in the southeast retreating from the Australian Alps but persisting in the eastern Murray-Darling Basin. Moderate surpluses will emerge on the Darling River. Intense surpluses will persist in the Lower Murray. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in western Tasmania including around Lakes Gordon and Pedder. Surpluses in the western half of Australia will shrink, persisting in a pocket southwest of the Gibson Desert. A pocket of exceptional deficit will emerge in the Upper Victoria River region of Northern Territory. Nearly normal water conditions are forecast for New Zealand and New Caledonia.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates persistent moderate surpluses in the eastern Murray-Darling Basin and emerging moderate surpluses along the coast from Sydney into Victoria. Surpluses will also persist in the Lower Murray River and southwest of the Gibson Desert.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A drought declaration has been issued for New Zealand’s North Canterbury region of South Island, entitling farmer to special assistance including free livestock feed, tax relief, and financial and planning services. With pastures in poor condition, some ranchers have already been forced to use feed supplements, sell off calves and lambs, and postpone stock mating this season.

The Otago region slightly south, has also been extremely dry and water carriers are making up to eight truckload deliveries a day in East Otago. Soil moisture deficits in some areas are 50mm (~2 inches) below normal, a condition that would require several good drenchings to alleviate. Precipitation deficits are also affecting other areas of the country including Marlborough and Hawke’s Bay.

Australia’s federal government has approved financial aid for 34 regions in the southeast after record-breaking March floods. The feds and the state government of New South Wales will split the cost of flood recovery. Small businesses can apply for grants of $50,000 and primary producers $75,000.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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