ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List April 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST APRIL 2021

15 April 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in January 2021 and running through December 2021 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List April 15, 2021 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through June indicates water deficits in the West, Southwest, Rockies, Texas, Dakotas, Michigan, the Northeast, South Atlantic, and Deep South. Anomalies will be exceptional in North Dakota, Utah, and Arizona.

Canada: The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will increase in Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, the Gaspé Peninsula, along the St. Lawrence River, and in Southern Ontario. Deficits will become exceptional in southern Manitoba but will shrink in southern Saskatchewan.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will increase in northern Mexico but retreat across the nation’s middle. Deficits will be intense in Sonora. Surpluses are forecast in Central America, Jamaica, and the Bahamas.

South America: The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will remain widespread in Brazil, while shrinking elsewhere, and will be exceptional in many pockets but especially in Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo States. Exceptional deficits are also forecast along the Paraguay and Paraná Rivers.

Europe: The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will shrink considerably, persisting in pockets of the U.K. and Balkans. Deficits will increase around the Baltic Sea, and in Germany, France, and western Hungary. Anomalies will continue to be exceptional in Estonia and Latvia.

Africa: The forecast through June indicates that water deficits in the Horn of Africa and around the Gulf of Guinea will shrink and downgrade but deficits in North Africa will increase and intensify. Intense surpluses are forecast in the Sahel. Other areas of surplus include Tanzania, Namibia, and Botswana.

Middle East: The forecast through June indicates widespread water deficits with intense anomalies in central Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, and in Iran near the Persian Gulf. Deficits will increase in Turkey and the Levant.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through June indicates that water deficits in Kazakhstan on the Caspian will become exceptional. Intense deficits will emerge north of Tyumen, Russia. Deficits will persist in the Lena River Watershed, but exceptional surpluses will emerge west of the Lower Lena.

South Asia: The forecast through June indicates water surpluses in the Deccan Plateau, Andhra Pradesh, and Gujarat. Deficits in India will shrink considerably but will re-emerge in the Far Northeast. Eastern Bangladesh will normalize.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through June indicates that water surpluses will downgrade and shrink overall but will remain widespread in Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and from eastern Java through the Lesser Sunda Islands. Widespread deficits will emerge in Sumatra.

East Asia: The forecast through June indicates widespread water surpluses in the Yellow River Watershed and Northeast China. Deficits will shrink in the southeast but will be extreme in Fujian. In Japan, deficits are expected in Hokkaido and in Honshu’s Yamagata Prefecture.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through June indicates persistent, widespread water surpluses in southeastern Australia from the eastern Murray-Darling Basin to the coast and will be extreme in the MacIntyre River region. Deficits are forecast in New Zealand but will retreat from Queensland.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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