Africa: Water surpluses will persist in Botswana

Africa: Water surpluses will persist in Botswana

29 March 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November 2021 indicates intense water deficits across North Africa including widespread exceptional anomalies. Pockets of mixed conditions are also forecast (pink/purple).

Surpluses reaching extreme intensity are expected in the eastern Sahel, and some pockets of lesser intensity in the west. Eritrea will see surpluses in the north, but deficits in the south and into Somaliland. Elsewhere in the Horn of Africa, intense surpluses are forecast in the Nugaal region of northern Somalia along with transitional conditions.

Around the southern Gulf of Guinea, extreme deficits are forecast in southeastern Cameroon, and exceptional deficits in Equatorial Guinea and southwestern Gabon. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, moderate to severe deficits are expected in the central Congo River Basin and in the southeast near Lake Tanganyika, but surpluses are forecast near Kinshasa. Angola can expect deficits, moderate overall but more intense in the northwest.

In East Africa, surpluses are forecast for Kenya and Malawi. Surpluses are also forecast for many regions in southern Africa including central Namibia, throughout Botswana and into southern Zambia and South Africa, southern Mozambique and its northwestern corner, and surrounding the Gariep Dam in South Africa.

Exceptional deficits are forecast for northeastern Mozambique, moderate to severe deficits in the Upper Vaal River region of South Africa, and moderate deficits in central Zimbabwe. In Madagascar, exceptional deficits are expected in the Lower Tsiribihina River region, and deficits of lesser intensity in the Betsiboka River region in the central-north and in the island’s southern extreme.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through May indicates that deficits in Africa will shrink and downgrade. Across the north, deficits will moderate in western nations, but exceptional deficits will be particularly widespread in northern Niger, southeastern Libya, Egypt, and northern Sudan. Surpluses are forecast across the Sahel and will be exceptional in southern Chad. Intense deficits will persist in central Eritrea. Pockets of generally moderate deficit are expected in Somaliland, Sierra Leone, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, southern Gabon, northern Angola, northeastern Mozambique, and the Upper Vaal River region in South Africa. Surpluses will shrink in East Africa, persisting primarily in Tanzania and Malawi, but will remain widespread in Botswana and central Namibia. Surpluses in southern Mozambique and around the Gariep Dam in South Africa will shrink.

From June through August, deficits in North Africa will shrink and downgrade, as will surpluses in the Sahel. Moderate surpluses will emerge from northern Ethiopia into Eritrea, and intense surpluses will persist in Nugaal, Somalia, along with transitional conditions. Some pockets of moderate deficit will linger in Gabon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, and a few other areas. Moderate surpluses will persist in central Tanzania and Malawi, and surpluses of greater intensity in Botswana, central Namibia, and southern Mozambique, with anomalies seeping into neighboring regions.

The forecast for the final quarter – September through November – indicates that deficits will shrink somewhat, particularly in Egypt, but conditions overall will be similar to the forecast for the prior three months.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Reports from Namibia indicate that illegal Angolan immigrants are pouring across the border, driven by food insecurity sparked in part by drought. Though estimates vary from hundreds to over 7,000 migrants, the World Food Program cites crop loss approaching 40 percent due to water shortage in Angola. The two governments are seeking diplomatic solutions to the humanitarian crisis.

Namibia itself is facing impacts from water shortage in the north, while precipitation in southern regions has been well above average. Many families in the drought-stricken Kunene region have vacated, pulling their children from school as they seek more favorable grazing areas for stock. Several years of drought in Namibia’s Kavanga, Zambezi, and Kharas regions proved favorable to the proliferation of locust eggs, creating a destructive hatching season when sufficient rainfall arrived recently. Spraying teams have been deployed to control the outbreak.

Excessive rainfall in South Africa’s Orange River raisin producing regions could result in a 28 to 30 percent loss this season, contributing to an upward trend in global prices.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.