Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits will intensify in W Mexico

25 March 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending November 2021 indicates deficits in many regions of northern and central Mexico. Deficits will be mild to moderate overall but exceptional anomalies are expected in northern Baja and severe anomalies in Coahuila.

Generally moderate deficits are forecast in southern Chihuahua, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, and in pockets of southern Mexico between the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

ISciences_Mexico_Central_America_Caribbean_Composite_Adjusted_202012-202111_12mo_twitter.png

Surpluses are forecast in several regions of Central America. Anomalies will reach extreme intensity in Honduras, but will be generally moderate in Belize, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Panama’s western half.

In the Caribbean, intense surpluses are forecast in Jamaica, pockets of Cuba, and Port-au-Prince (Haiti). Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast for the Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates that deficits will increase in northern Mexico, intensifying as exceptional deficits emerge in southern Baja, northern Sonora, northern Chihuahua, and through the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountains in the west from Sinaloa through Nayarit. Deficits will increase as well in southern Chihuahua, Durango, and Coahuila, but will downgrade from the central states on the Gulf of Mexico reaching inland. Surpluses will shrink in pockets of southern Mexico and downgrade in the Yucatan Peninsula. In Central America, surpluses will remain widespread with extreme to exceptional anomalies in Honduras, extreme anomalies in Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica, and generally moderate anomalies elsewhere. Jamaica can expect exceptional surpluses to persist. Pockets of intense surplus are expected in Cuba and the Bahamas.

ISciences_Mexico_Central_America_Caribbean_Composite_Adjusted_202012-202111_3mo_twitter.png

From June through August, anomalies in the region will decrease considerably as deficits retreat from much of Mexico and surpluses retreat from much of Central America. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in southeastern Chihuahua. In Baja, deficits in the south will become merely mild, while some generally moderate anomalies linger in the north. Moderate surpluses are expected to emerge in southern Durango and in Jalisco in the west where prior deficits had prevailed. Surpluses will disappear from the Yucatan and pockets of the south, moderate deficits will emerge in Oaxaca, and severe deficits in eastern Chiapas. In Central America, deficits will replace surpluses in Guatemala, El Salvador, and parts of western Honduras and Nicaragua. Some pockets of moderate surplus are expected to persist along the northeastern coast of Honduras, in southern Nicaragua, and pockets in Costa Rica and western Panama. Intense surpluses will persist in Jamaica though transitions will begin. Surpluses are also forecast to continue in pockets of Cuba but will shrink in the Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – September through November– indicates nearly normal conditions for northern Mexico; pockets of moderate surplus from southern Durango into Zacatecas; and moderate deficits in Mexico’s southern states. Moderate deficits are also forecast for Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras, with near-normal water conditions in the remainder of Central America. Surpluses in Jamaica will moderate, and some small pockets of surplus are forecast in Cuba and the Bahamas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
So far this year, rainfall in Mexico is 25 percent below the 30-year average, leaving about 60 percent of the nation’s municipalities in drought. Conagua, the national water utility, reports that 83 of the 210 most important dams in the country are at less than 50 percent capacity and only three are at 100 percent. The Cutzamala River system that supplies Mexico City with water is at its lowest level in 25 years, prompting a reduced allocation of drinking water from 16 May through the end of the year.

Heavy rainfall in early March caused flooding in the Baracoa region of Guantanamo, Cuba. Agricultural and residential damage was reported as many rivers in the region overflowed.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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