Middle East: Water deficits in Turkey will shrink

Middle East: Water deficits in Turkey will shrink

23 February 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending October 2021 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions of the Arabian Peninsula, interspersed with transitional conditions. Deficits will be exceptional along the northern shore of the Red Sea, in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, south-central and southeastern Saudi Arabia, and spanning the border of Yemen and Oman. Some small pockets of surplus are expected on the central Red Sea Coast near Jeddah and farther south on Yemen’s west coast.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in much of Turkey with intense anomalies along the central Black Sea Coast, west of Lake Tuz in Central Anatolia, and west of Lake Van in the east. Deficits will also be intense in coastal Georgia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for north-central Syria, but deficits are forecast around Aleppo. Intense surpluses are expected around Mosul, Iraq, and deficits west of the Euphrates River in Anbar Province.

In Iran, surpluses will follow much of the Caspian Coast reaching inland to Tehran, intensifying near Turkmenistan with transitional conditions as well. Surpluses are also forecast in a pocket on the northern Persian Gulf. Deficits will be widespread and intense in the Iranian provinces near the southern Persian Gulf, exceptional in some pockets though transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast near the Strait of Hormuz. Widespread deficits of varying intensity are expected in central Iran.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

Though the forecast through April 2021 indicates that widespread, intense water anomalies - deficits and surpluses - will shrink in the region, anomalies are forecast for many regions. Severe to exceptional deficits will persist along Turkey’s central Caspian Coast and in a pocket west of Lake Tuz in Central Anatolia. A few scattered pockets of moderate surplus will also persist. Intense surpluses will emerge in south-central Georgia in the region of the Kura River; intense deficits will persist along Georgia’s coast; and severe deficits are forecast north of Tbilisi. Exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in central and northern Syria and around Mosul in Iraq. Surpluses will continue along Iran’s Caspian Coast reaching inland to Tehran, with transitional conditions near the Turkmen border. Pockets of surplus will also persist in northwestern Iran and near the northeast coast of the Persian Gulf. Scattered deficits are forecast in central Iran and in the south, though transitional conditions will persist near the Strait of Hormuz.

On the Arabian Peninsula, surpluses will nearly disappear as deficits emerge though the extent of exceptional deficit will shrink considerably. Exceptional deficits will persist, however, in eastern Yemen reaching well into Oman. Intense deficits are also expected along Saudi Arabia’s northern Red Sea Coast, and a vast extent of moderate to extreme deficit is forecast in central Saudi Arabia, particularly widespread in Riyadh Province. 

From May through July 2021, surpluses will continue to shrink as transitions occur. A pocket of surplus will remain along Iran’s central Caspian Coast, but transitional conditions will increase there and in Syria and around Mosul. Deficits will moderate in Turkey west of Lake Tuz, will spread along its Caspian Coast, and mild deficits will begin to emerge in the Levant. On the Arabian Peninsula, conditions will become nearly normal in Yemen and Oman. Deficits will moderate on the northern Red Sea Coast but will increase in central Saudi Arabia with exceptional anomalies emerging in the east. Moderate deficits will increase in UAE, and intense deficits in Oman will downgrade. Deficits will increase in central and northeastern Iran and intensify in Fars Province in the south-central region of the country.

In the final quarter – August through October 2021 – surpluses will persist near Mosul and re-emerge near the Strait of Hormuz in Iran. Deficits will increase in Turkey, intensify in central Saudi Arabia, and downgrade in Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A rare winter blizzard hit parts of the Middle East in January. The Aseer region on the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia saw its first snow in half a century. And in mid-February, nearly 20 cm (8 inches) fell in northern Jordan closing schools and halting COVID-19 vaccination in the capital, Amman. In the Syrian mountain province of Sweida, 15 cm (6 inches) of snow was recorded, causing some road closures. Dozens of roads were closed in Lebanon, and in Israel the main road between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem was closed.

After nearly 50 years, Iran and Afghanistan have successfully negotiated a water rights agreement for the Helmand River and three lakes that make up the Hamouns Wetlands along a shared border. The arrangement stipulates new mapping of the wetlands to aid in placement of three water intake sites and their subsequent construction.

Water rights from the Zayandehrood River in central Iran are in contention as farmers in Isfahan Province rally to gain access they claim has been diverted by government profiteers. In early February government agents and police destroyed wells and pipes providing water to farmland.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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