Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook January 2021

5 January 2021

OVERVIEW
The Outlook for January 2021 indicates warmer than normal temperatures for Canada with exceptional anomalies in parts of the Northern Great Plains of Canada and the U.S. Temperatures will also be much warmer in South Asia around the Bay of Bengal. Wetter than normal conditions are forecast across the northern arc of South America from the Pacific to the Atlantic.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Northern nations in South America can expect more precipitation than usual from northern Peru through eastern Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and dipping into the northern reaches of the Amazon Basin in Brazil. Surpluses will be extreme in the Orinoco River Basin and intense in several other areas including north of Cali, Colombia, and the Ucayali River Basin in Peru.

Drier than normal conditions are expected in Brazil’s north-central and northeastern states, particularly Pará and Maranhão where deficits will be severe to exceptional.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on… — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Central Bolivia will be drier, but wetter than normal conditions are forecast in the south along the Pilcomayo River and into the Gran Chaco region of northern Argentina. Argentina’s northwestern provinces of Salta and Catamarca can expect precipitation deficits in western areas. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in San Juan and Mendoza Provinces, and moderate deficits in Patagonian Argentina and Chile.

In Central America, precipitation surpluses are forecast, primarily in southern Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Panama. Mexico can expect moderately drier than normal conditions throughout much of the north, in pockets of the central states, and in southern Veracruz and Tabasco. The eastern Yucatán Peninsula and southern Chiapas State will be moderately wetter than normal.

Dry conditions will extend from northern Mexico into the U.S. Southwest. Deficits will be primarily moderate overall, but severe along New Mexico’s central southern border and in the Rio Grande Basin through West Texas. The Pacific Northwest will be wetter than normal with surpluses reaching into northern Idaho. Missouri and northern Arkansas can expect some pockets of moderate surplus. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula will be drier and conditions will reach across the border into Ontario, Canada.

Moderate precipitation surpluses are expected in northern Manitoba, Canada, and moderate to severe surpluses in southwestern British Columbia. Central Alberta will be moderately drier between the Athabasca and North Saskatchewan Rivers. Intense precipitation deficits are expected in western Yukon leading into the region of Alaska between the Porcupine and Yukon River. Southwestern Alaska will be moderately drier than normal as will the region from Fairbanks to Anchorage.

Normal precipitation is forecast for much of Europe but moderate surpluses are expected from Latvia through Belarus and nearby regions of Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, and pockets in Czech Republic, Hungary, and the northern Balkans.

In Africa, some moderate deficits are forecast along the central and eastern Mediterranean Coast, in a path down the middle of Ethiopia, and pockets nearby in Eritrea and Somaliland. Deficits will be more intense in southwestern Gabon and northern Angola. Deficits are also expected in northeastern Madagascar. Conditions will be wetter than normal in Tanzania, Burundi, Malawi, northern Mozambique, Zambia, southeastern Angola, much of Namibia, western Botswana, the central region of the Orange River Basin in South Africa, and a large pockets surrounding Middleburg, South Africa. Surpluses will be exceptional in south-central Tanzania, and severe to extreme in Mozambique’s northwestern corner and in Namibia. Surpluses elsewhere on the continent include northern Democratic Republic of the Congo and small pockets around the Gulf of Guinea.

Some areas of the Middle East will be drier than normal including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and southern Iran, though anomalies will be moderate overall.

Deficits are forecast in Central Asia throughout Tajikistan and in pockets of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Deficits will be severe in central Tajikistan. In Russia, northern Siberia will be wetter than normal, but moderate precipitation deficits are forecast for eastern Russia.

In South Asia, deficits are expected throughout Afghanistan, much of Pakistan, India’s Far North, and Nepal. Deficits will be severe between Kabul, Afghanistan and Quetta, Pakistan. Much of India’s western coast from Mumbai south will be wetter than normal with extreme to exceptional surpluses in western Karnataka. Moderate surpluses are forecast in eastern Tamil Nadu, and moderate deficits in Far Northeast India and parts of Bangladesh.

In East Asia, many regions will be somewhat drier than normal including the Tibetan Plateau in China and a vast north/south path from Liaoning Province in the Northeast through the North China Plain, Middle Yangtze region, and western Pearl River (Zhujiang River) Watershed where deficits will be extreme. Deficits will encompass the Korean Peninsula and many areas of Japan, and will be moderate to extreme. Pockets of generally moderate deficit are expected in central and eastern Mongolia.

In Southeast Asia, moderately drier than normal conditions are expected in north-central Laos and pockets of western Thailand, but deficits will be severe in northern Vietnam. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast for much of central and southern Vietnam, the Philippines, northern Sumatra, northeastern Borneo, and large pockets of the New Guinea Highlands. Papua New Guinea can expect intense deficits on the northeastern coast and on the island of New Britain.

Moderate precipitation surpluses are forecast for Australia’s southwestern tip and in northern Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for much of the vast expanse of Canada, with extreme to exceptional anomalies in parts of the Northern Great Plains provinces and into Ontario and pockets of Quebec. The Yukon will be moderately warmer than normal and Northwest Territories and Nunavut can expect severe to extreme warm anomalies.

Warmer than normal conditions will reach south across the Canadian border well into the U.S., stretching coast-to-coast, with exceptionally warmer conditions in the U.S. Northern Plains States and Minnesota and severe to extreme warm anomalies in the Great Lakes Region and Northeast. Anomalies will moderate the farther south they reach but will remain widespread in a belt from Oregon, dipping south through Kansas, and on to the East Coast through Virginia. Much of the remaining U.S. will be mildly warmer than normal though moderately warmer temperatures are forecast in California, eastern New Mexico, and West Texas.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on t… — Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

The state of Coahuila in northern Mexico will be moderately warmer than normal with similar conditions in some areas of nearby states. Likewise, Nayarit on the west coast will be moderately warmer. Warm anomalies will become somewhat more intense in central Mexico and will be severe in Veracruz and extreme in the southern states, downgrading in the Yucatán.

In Central America, Guatemala and Belize can expect severe to extreme warm anomalies; these conditions will downgrade as they reach into Honduras and El Salvador. Caribbean nations will be warmer than normal with exceptionally warmer temperatures in Jamaica.

Much of central and eastern Brazil will be warmer than normal with exceptionally warmer temperatures in the nation’s easternmost tip and in Tocantins; and, extreme to exceptional anomalies in the surrounding states of Pará, Amapá, Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Maranhão. Through Goiás, intense warm anomalies will reach south into Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Other regions in South America where temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal include Suriname, French Guiana, the Cordillera Central Mountains in Colombia and Ecuador, central Peru, eastern Bolivia and the Cordillera Orientale Mountains from western Bolivia into Argentina, central Chile, and the eastern Pampas and Patagonia in Argentina.

Cooler than normal conditions are forecast in the Orinoco River Basin from Venezuela into Colombia; southern Loreto Province, Peru; coastal Ecuador into Peru; and the Gran Chaco Region and La Rioja Province in Argentina.

Though temperatures will be relatively normal in much of Europe, warm anomalies are expected from the Baltics through Eastern Europe and the Balkans, reaching well into European Russia. Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria can expect some exceptionally warmer than normal pockets; Belarus, Ukraine, the Balkans and southern Italy will experience severe warm anomalies; and moderate anomalies are forecast from Poland through Serbia. In western Russia, anomalies will be moderate overall though severe near Ukraine.

Africa will be warmer than normal in varying intensity across the breadth of the Sahara Desert and the Sahel with exceptionally warmer temperatures in eastern Libya, Egypt, western Mauritania, and Senegal. Temperatures will also be exceptionally warmer in central pockets of nations along the northern Gulf of Guinea, and on the other side of the continent in southeastern Ethiopia and northwestern Kenya. Moderately warmer conditions are forecast for western South Africa. Warm anomalies will blanket much of Madagascar, exceptional in the southwest and severe to extreme in the northeast.

Regions in Africa with a forecast of cooler than normal temperatures include Namibia, southeastern Angola, southwestern Zambia, Botswana, northwestern Mozambique, central and northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, east-central Uganda, and southwestern Ethiopia.

In the Middle East, widespread exceptionally warmer conditions are expected in the Levant and west of the Euphrates River in Iraq. Conditions will be extremely warmer in Turkey and moderately warmer in central Saudi Arabia and the Caucasus region. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for Iran’s western half. Somewhat cooler than normal temperatures are predicted in pockets along Saudi Arabia’s southern border, reaching through northern Oman and into northwestern Yemen. Western Yemen near the Red Sea will be warmer than normal.

Western Russia will be moderately warmer than normal, as previously mentioned. Mild anomalies are expected from the Northern European Plain past the Ural Mountains to the Western Siberian Plain. Anomalies will begin to intensify at that point, encompassing a vast area and reaching severe to extreme levels in Northern and Central Siberia before normalizing in the far east. In Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will be warmer than normal.

Likewise, warmer conditions are forecast for the northern halves of Afghanistan and Pakistan, generally moderate in Pakistan but more intense in Afghanistan where exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures are expected west of Kabul near the source of the Helmand and Harirud Rivers in the Hindu Kush. Elsewhere in South Asia, with the exception of Gujarat in the west, much of India will experience warmer than normal temperatures including a vast coast-to-coast belt of exceptional anomalies from Maharashtra through West Bengal. Intensely warmer temperatures are also forecast for nearly all of Bangladesh. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for central Nepal, eastern Bhutan, and Sri Lanka.

In East Asia, relatively normal temperatures are expected in many regions of China and in Taiwan, Mongolia, the Korean Peninsula, and most of Japan. However, exceptionally warmer than normal conditions will dominate the eastern and southern regions of the Tibetan Plateau and much of Yunnan, China. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast through the Kunlun Mountain Range in western China; and, Northeast China can expect moderate to severe warm anomalies. Northern Honshu, Japan will be somewhat cooler than normal.

Myanmar will be blanketed by exceptionally warmer conditions. Nearly normal temperatures are forecast elsewhere in Southeast Asia along with a few small pockets of cool anomalies in Vietnam and moderately warmer than normal conditions in the Malay Peninsula. Indonesia, Malaysian Borneo, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and the smaller island nations in the region can expect to be warmer than normal with exceptional anomalies in many regions including the central Philippines.

In Australia, Brisbane will be moderately warmer than normal, Tasmania can expect severe warm anomalies, and warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in a large region from Alice Springs in the Outback to the northwest coast reaching Broome. Some pockets of moderately cooler temperatures are forecast in Western Australia’s southern and western regions. New Zealand will be moderately warmer in the north but severe anomalies are forecast in the south. New Caledonia will be exceptionally warmer.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released January 2, 2021 which includes forecasts for January 2021 through September 2021 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued December 25 through December 31, 2020.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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