Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus forecast in the Ob Basin, deficits in the Lena

Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus forecast in the Ob Basin, deficits in the Lena

21 November 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2021 indicates surpluses of varying intensity in the Ob River Watershed and the Middle and Upper Yenisei River regions. Exceptional deficits are expected on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob and in the region of the Lower Yenisei. Deficits are also forecast for much of the Lena River Watershed including the Lena River Delta (not shown) and the Upper Lena River region northwest of Lake Baikal.

In Kazakhstan, exceptional surpluses are expected in the north in the Ishim River Watershed including the capital Nur-Sultan (Astana), and surpluses of varying intensity in the eastern Kazakh Uplands. Some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in the nation’s south-central region and west. Moderate deficits are expected in much of Uzbekistan and moderate to severe deficits in Turkmenistan. Intense surpluses are forecast for the Fergana Valley and central Tajikistan, and some moderate deficits south of Dushanbe. Eastern Kyrgyzstan can expect surpluses.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2021 indicates that deficits will emerge in the Ural River Watershed straddling Russia and Kazakhstan, and east of the Irtysh River. Exceptional deficits will persist on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob while widespread surpluses continue in the Ob River Watershed. Surpluses are also forecast in the Tom River Basin. A vast block of exceptional deficit will persist in the region of the Lower Yenisei River and deficits of varying intensity in the region of its right tributaries, the Tunguska Rivers. Intense surpluses are expected along the Middle Yenisei and the Angara. Deficits will remain exceptional in the Lena River Delta (not shown) and will increase and intensify in the vast Lena River Watershed.

In Kazakhstan, surpluses in the north near Nur-Sultan will remain exceptional and widespread but deficits will begin to emerge in the region of the Irtysh River. Surpluses will persist in the eastern Kazakh Uplands though transitions will begin. Moderate surpluses will persist on the Ile River in the south, and pockets of moderate deficit will persist in the center of the country and in the west. Surpluses on the Amu Darya River through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will intensify, becoming exceptional, and exceptional surpluses are forecast for central Tajikistan, reaching north. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in pockets of Kyrgyzstan and along the Naryn River.

From February through April 2021, surpluses will shrink in the Lower and Middle Ob River Watershed, and deficits around the Gulf of Ob will downgrade but will remain intense. In the Lower Yenisei River region deficits will remain widespread, downgrading slightly, and surpluses on the Yenisei itself will moderate. In the Lena River region, deficits will shrink and downgrade somewhat but many areas of exceptional deficit will persist including the Lena River Delta. In Kazakhstan, intense surpluses will persist in the north and deficits in the country will nearly disappear. Surpluses will shrink but persist in central Tajikistan and eastern Kyrgyzstan. Conditions on the Amu Darya River will return to normal.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2021 – indicates that surpluses and deficits will shrink in Russia though surpluses will remain widespread in the Ob River Watershed. Deficits will persist in the region of the Lower Yenisei River. Surpluses will persist in northern Kazakhstan and eastern Kyrgyzstan, and deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Russia’s watery jewel, the massive Lake Baikal in southern Siberia, is currently at a critically low level. Hydroelectricity production at the Irkutsk power station could be reduced by lower water flows.

Black Sea sunflower oil prices are at a premium as drought in production areas of Ukraine and Russia has reduced crop yields, putting the current output below last year’s.

Severe drought in Crimea has left a dry bed in the Simferopol Reservoir, with Russian authorities citing 2020 as the driest year on the peninsula in over a century. New wells are being dug near the Salhyr River. After Russia’s annexation of the region in 2014, Ukraine shut down a canal supplying water to the area.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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