Middle East: Water deficits forecast for Riyadh & Georgia

Middle East: Water deficits forecast for Riyadh & Georgia

21 December 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending August 2021 indicates water deficits of varying intensity, including exceptional deficits, in the Levant, nearly all of Turkey, the Caucasus region, Iraq west of the Euphrates River, and many parts of the Arabian Peninsula.

Exceptional deficits are forecast for Jordan and Syria along with transitional conditions (pink/purple). Other areas with a forecast of exceptional deficit include Arabian regions along the northern Red Sea, southeastern Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and many pockets in Turkey, including around Lake Van in the east.

Severe deficits are expected in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, and regions to the north and east, becoming extreme in Qatar. Some small pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in southwestern Saudi Arabia and transitional conditions along the southern border. Deficits and transitional conditions are forecast for much of Yemen and southern Oman.

In Iran, surpluses will follow the Caspian Coast reaching inland to Tehran, intensifying near Turkmenistan with transitional conditions there as well. Surpluses are also forecast in a pocket on the northern Persian Gulf and in central Kerman Province in the south. Deficits and transitional conditions are expected in the southern Persian Gulf region and around the Strait of Hormuz.

Deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for Georgia; moderate deficits are predicted in pockets of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through February 2021 indicates that widespread water anomalies, deficits and surpluses, will shrink in the region. In Georgia, however, severe to extreme deficits will persist. Small pockets of exceptional deficit will follow Turkey’s central Black Coast, deficits near Istanbul will intensify, and deficits in the west will moderate.

Exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in central and northern Syria. In Iran, moderate to extreme surpluses will persist in the north with exceptional surpluses in the northeast near Turkmenistan. Primarily moderate surpluses will persist in a path west of Isfahan leading to the northern Persian Gulf. In southern Iran, transitional conditions are expected near the Strait of Hormuz leading inland to surpluses in central Kerman Province.

On the Arabian Peninsula, moderate deficits are expected in southern Riyadh Province, and moderate to exceptional surpluses will span Saudi Arabia’s border with Yemen and Oman.

From March through May 2021, surpluses will continue to shrink, leaving a few persistent pockets in the region. Intense surpluses along with transitional conditions are forecast for northern Syria, and exceptional surpluses will re-emerge around Mosul, Iraq. Some pockets of surplus will persist in northern Iran near the Caspian Sea. Deficits in north-central Turkey will increase, though downgrading on the coast, and deficits in the west and near Istanbul will retreat. Deficits in Georgia will shrink. In Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, deficits will elevate from moderate to severe; exceptional deficits will emerge in the southeast; and transitional conditions are forecast spanning the southern border. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Oman and moderate deficits will linger in western Yemen.

In the final quarter – June through August 2021 – surpluses will nearly disappear, persisting near Mosul. Deficits will increase, intensifying in central Saudi Arabia and central Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Many areas of Turkey are experiencing significant rainfall shortages, leaving dam levels throughout the country at critical levels. Turkey’s Black Sea region is experiencing about half its normal rainfall, threatening area forest growth. Experts say that this is the driest season in Edirne Province in over 90 years. Water levels in several northwestern rivers, the Maritsa (Meriç) and Tunca (Tundzha), were at critically low levels. According to a former official in the State Hydraulic Works, Istanbul - home to 16 million people - has just a month’s worth of water reserves.

Flooding hit southern Iran in early December, killing seven people. Heavy rainfall in six provinces followed prior flooding in late November. The deaths in December were attributed to flash flooding, building collapse, and a landslide.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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