ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List December 2020

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST DECEMBER 2020

15 December 2020

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in September 2020 and running through August 2021 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List December 15, 2020 (pdf).

United States: Through February 2021, water deficits in the West, Southwest, and Northeast will shrink and downgrade, as will widespread surpluses from the Lower Mississippi to the Atlantic Coast. Intense deficits will persist in Colorado and New Mexico, increase in Kansas, and emerge in North Dakota.

Canada: The forecast through February 2021 indicates that water deficits will increase considerably in southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan. Exceptional deficits will persist in many regions of eastern Canada. Surpluses are forecast in southern British Columbia and around Calgary, Alberta.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through February 2021 indicates water deficits in much of Mexico, with surpluses in the Yucatán and southern Gulf states. Widespread intense surpluses will persist throughout Central America, Jamaica, and the Bahamas.

South America: The forecast through February 2021 indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably overall but will remain widespread in Brazil. A vast band of surplus will emerge in the northern Amazon Basin, and surpluses are forecast for western Suriname, northern Guyana, and the Orinoco Delta.

Europe: The forecast through February 2021 indicates that water deficits will shrink in southern Russia and Eastern Europe. Deficits are forecast, however, in Estonia, Latvia, Germany through France, and the southern Balkan region. Widespread surpluses will persist in Central Europe and western Russia.

Africa: The forecast through February 2021 indicates that water deficits will shrink, but deficits are forecast around the Gulf of Guinea and in southeastern Ethiopia. Surpluses will remain widespread across much of the Sahel and in East Africa, downgrading in Tanzania but emerging in Zambia.

Middle East: The forecast through February 2021 indicates that widespread water anomalies will shrink. However, surpluses will remain widespread in northern Iran and will re-emerge in northern Syria. Deficits are forecast for Georgia, western Turkey and the Black Sea Coast, and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through February 2021 indicates water conditions much like the prior three months. Widespread intense deficits are forecast in the Lower Yenisei River and Lena River Watersheds. Areas of surpluses include the Amu Darya River, central Tajikistan, and eastern Kyrgyzstan.

South Asia: The forecast through February 2021 indicates that intense water surpluses will persist coast to coast through the Deccan Plateau in India, and deficits will emerge near Bhopal, Kolkata, and in western Rajasthan. Intense surpluses will persist throughout Bangladesh.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through February 2021 indicates that widespread, intense water surpluses will persist in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, eastern Thailand, and western Myanmar. Surpluses will downgrade in the Philippines, shrink in Indonesia, and increase in New Guinea.

East Asia: The forecast through February 2021 indicates that water surpluses will remain widespread in the Yellow and Yangtze River Watersheds, shrinking south of the Yangtze. Deficits are forecast for China’s coastal southeast, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, and surpluses in North Korea.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through February 2021 indicates that much of the region will return to near-normal conditions as water deficits retreat, persisting along Australia’s southwestern coast, in coastal Victoria, and pockets of Tasmania. Surpluses will emerge across northern Australia.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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