Middle East: Intense water deficits forecast in Riyadh

Middle East: Intense water deficits forecast in Riyadh

27 October 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending June 2021 indicates water deficits in the Levant, much of Saudi Arabia, and around the Persian Gulf. Deficits will be exceptional in many areas including Jordan, Iraq west of the Euphrates River, northern Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Transitional conditions are also forecast (pink/purple) in some pockets, particularly in Syria.

In the southern portion of the Arabian Peninsula, surpluses of varying intensity are expected along much of Saudi Arabia’s border reaching well into Yemen. Mixed conditions and deficits are forecast for Yemen’s southwestern tip.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected around the Persian Gulf moderating as they reach well into Fars Province in southern Iran and into pockets of central Iran. Surpluses are forecast in the southern province of Kerman leading to transitional conditions and deficits near the Strait of Hormuz. Surpluses are also forecast in northwestern Iran from Lake Urmia into Azerbaijan, and in a narrow belt in the north through Tehran leading to transitional conditions in the northeast near Turkmenistan. In Iraq, a pocket of exceptional surplus is forecast near Mosul.

Deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional are predicted for much of central and western Turkey and for Georgia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates that widespread surpluses in the region will shrink, intense deficits will shrink or downgrade overall, and moderate deficits will emerge in many areas formerly in transition. Surpluses will shrink considerably from northern Iraq through Iran, persisting with intensity around Mosul but downgrading in Iran’s northwest quadrant. Transitional conditions are forecast in northeastern provinces near Turkmenistan and in the south from Kerman Province to the Strait of Hormuz. Moderate deficits will emerge in central Iran and exceptional deficits along the southeastern coast near Pakistan.

Moderate deficits are forecast from eastern Syria through Iraq west of the Euphrates River, large pockets throughout much of Saudi Arabia and in Oman and United Arab Emirates. A large block of exceptional deficit is forecast for southern Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. Surpluses and transitional conditions are expected spanning the Saudi border with Yemen and Oman. Exceptional deficits will retreat from northern Oman but emerge in the south.

In Turkey, deficits are forecast along the Black Sea Coast. Deficits in Georgia will increase and intensify.

From January through March 2021, deficits will shrink considerably leaving normal conditions in many parts of the region. Moderate to severe deficits will persist in southern Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, and Tabuk Province on the northern Red Sea. Intense surpluses will re-emerge in central Syria and will persist in Iraq surrounding Mosul. Surpluses in northwestern Iran will shrink considerably and moderate, persisting around Lake Urmia. Transitional conditions are forecast for northeastern Iran and in the south near the Strait of Hormuz. Surpluses spanning the southern Saudi border will shrink.

In the final quarter – April through June 2021 – surpluses will nearly disappear, persisting near Mosul, and deficits will increase, generally mild overall but moderate to severe in Saudi Arabia with deficits in Tabuk becoming exceptional.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Iranian government has committed to “ultra-deep” well drilling, a depth of 3,000 meters, in the water-impoverished southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan. Drought and declining rainfall in the region have combined to create a 6-billion-cubic-meter drop in the average water level of reservoirs. Results of the drilling efforts have yet to establish a viable water source.

In September, 93 locations in Turkey broke all-time temperatures records. The Turkish State Meteorological Service reported that the average temperature in September 2020 was 3.4 degrees Celsius higher (6.12 Fahrenheit) than the average over prior years.

The Black Sea region in general has experienced lower rainfall over the past few months and increasing drought risk. Istanbul’s dams are at the lowest level in 5 years, averaging 30.6 percent of capacity. The waters of Yayla Lake in western Turkey have receded 30 feet from the shore with levels at the lowest in 20 years.

In the Nagorno-Karabakh region of the South Caucasus, an area that has been claimed by both Azerbaijan and Armenia, Azerbaijani forces now control the strategic Sugovushan water reservoir, known to Armenians as the Madagiz reservoir. The dam had been controlled by Armenia since 1992 and the water supply is critical to agricultural producers in both nations.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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