South Asia: Water surplus will persist in many regions

South Asia: Water surplus will persist in many regions

21 October 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2021 indicates widespread water surpluses in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and many regions of India and Afghanistan.

Surplus conditions will dominate all of Bangladesh with extreme to exceptional anomalies in most regions. In Nepal, surpluses are expected throughout the country, severe in Kathmandu and exceptional along the Gandak River through the center of the nation and into India. Exceptional anomalies will prevail in Pakistan in the Hindu Kush, much of the Indus River Basin, and in a column from Quetta past Karachi in the south.

Afghanistan, too, will see surpluses of varying intensity, with severe anomalies in Kabul. Conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are forecast in the Upper Helmand River region as transitions occur and moderate deficits are expected west of Herat and in pockets of the far north.

In India, surpluses will be widespread in the west and the Deccan Plateau, extending from Gujarat through Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. Surpluses will be exceptional from Mumbai through Karnataka and in Telangana, and extreme in Gujarat. Surpluses are also forecast for Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Jammu and Kashmir. Deficits are forecast in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, western Uttar Pradesh, and northwestern Madhya Pradesh, and in a pocket of southern India at the tip of Tamil Nadu. Deficits will be intense in Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. India’s Far Northeast can expect mixed conditions. Moderate surpluses are forecast for Sri Lanka’s southwest corner.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates that the distribution pattern of surplus in India will be much like that of the prior three months’ observed conditions but the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink somewhat in Telangana and Karnataka while increasing in Jharkhand. Deficits will retreat from Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, but intense deficits will emerge in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh in the north, and moderate deficits will emerge in northwestern Rajasthan. Surpluses will shrink in India’s Far Northeast with deficits emerging in central Assam. Surpluses will remain widespread in Bangladesh, but the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink. In Nepal, surpluses will retreat from the west, persist in the east, and downgrade to mild on the Gandak River. Widespread surpluses will persist in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but vast areas of transition are also forecast. Moderate deficits will emerge in coastal Pakistan.

From January through March 2021, transitional conditions are forecast in India from Gujarat through Goa with surpluses persisting in aforementioned areas of the nation and throughout Bangladesh and eastern Nepal. Mild deficits are forecast for Rajasthan, and intense deficits in the north will shrink. Surpluses in Pakistan will shrink though widespread, exceptional anomalies will persist, re-emerging in some areas. In Afghanistan, surpluses will also shrink leaving surplus and transitional conditions in a wide column from Mazar-e-Sharif to the Pakistan border.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2021 – indicates intense, widespread surpluses in Pakistan; and surpluses in western India, the Deccan Plateau, the Far North, and from eastern Nepal trailing into Bangladesh. Some deficits are forecast in India’s Far Northeast, and nearly normal conditions in Afghanistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Though India’s monsoon season officially ended in September, many regions continue to battle flood conditions. Mid-October brought record-breaking rainfall to Hyderabad, Telangana, dumping 191.8mm (7.5 inches) on the city in 24 hours, the highest October rainfall for the state capital in over 100 years. At least 15 people died as roads turned into rivers. The city lost electricity for up to 24 hours, curtailing its significant IT industry. Army forces were deployed for relief operations, but much lower-tech assistance came from the volunteers at the Hyderabad Horse Riding School who mounted steeds to deliver supplies and offer rescue.

The Bhima River in Karnataka remained above flood stage, necessitating the evacuation of 35,000 people as many villages were submerged.

Flooding hit India’s Far Northeast state of Assam for the second time in September, creating havoc late in the month. Over 225,000 people have been affected. Though estimates vary, between 10,000 and 28,000 hectares of agricultural land are submerged and Kaziranga National Park was closed due to flooding.

Late September flooding in Nepal claimed the lives of 10 people in Lumbini and Bagmati Pradesh Provinces. Natural disasters including flooding and landslides have raised the death toll in Ghandaki Province to 126 so far this year.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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