Europe: Water deficits from Baltics to Black Sea

21 September 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2021 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in many regions of Europe. Deficits will be especially intense in Estonia, Latvia, and central Ukraine. Widespread deficits are forecast for much of Finland and central Sweden; from France through northern Germany; and from southern Lithuania through Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, eastern Romania, and eastern Bulgaria.

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The vast path from the Baltics through Bulgaria includes many areas of exceptional deficit including the capital cities of Riga (Latvia) and Kiev (Ukraine), and extreme deficits near Chisinau (Moldova). In Central Europe, deficits will be especially intense in Belgium and Luxembourg, and pockets of eastern Germany. Deficits will be extreme to exceptional near Dresden (Germany) and severe near Brussels (Belgium).

Moderate deficits are expected throughout much of France. In Italy, pockets of deficit are expected including exceptional deficits in the Dolomite Mountains and extreme deficits near Bologna and south of Naples. Intense deficits are forecast for eastern Slovenia. Some areas of moderate deficit are forecast for southwestern Spain including Seville, while surpluses are expected in east-central Spain.

Widespread surpluses are expected in European Russia including a vast area of exceptional surplus west of Moscow. Other areas of surplus include Ireland and the U.K., Denmark, Czech Republic, Austria, southern Serbia into Kosovo, Romania, and pockets of Scandinavia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through November indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread. Areas of intense deficit include southern Belarus and pockets in the Baltics. While downgrading from exceptional to severe, deficits will increase in Ukraine, leading through Moldova and pockets of eastern Romania and Bulgaria. From France through northern Germany moderate deficits are expected with a few areas of greater intensity including southern Belgium. In France, deficits will shrink in the north but moderate deficits will increase in the southwest. Deficits in southern Spain and around the Adriatic Sea will nearly disappear.

ISciences_Europe_Composite_Adjusted_202006-202105_3mo_twitter.png

Surpluses will persist in European Russia, but the extent of exceptional anomalies will diminish considerably. Deficits will increase in the Don River Watershed of southern Russia. Surpluses will also persist in Spain, intense in the east-central region but less so in the northwest. Moderate surpluses are expected in Ireland and the U.K., Denmark, Czech Republic, Austria, western Romania, and pockets around the Aegean Sea. Intense surpluses will persist in southern Serbia.

From December 2020 through February 2021 deficits will nearly disappear but intense deficits are forecast for central Sweden and Finland’s Lapland. Surpluses are forecast in European Russia, Czech Republic, Switzerland, western Romania, western Bulgaria, Servia, Kosovo, and North Macedonia. Surpluses will increase in southern Finland, southern Sweden, pockets in the Baltics, and rivers in eastern Belarus; shrink in Denmark and eastern Spain; and nearly disappear in the U.K. and Ireland.

The forecast for the remaining months – March through May 2021 – indicates nearly normal conditions in many regions. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Russia. Other areas of surplus include Norway, northern Sweden, Russia, Czech Republic, and Switzerland. Areas of deficit include central Sweden, Eastern Europe, and France.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
”We want water.” In a desperate effort to bring attention to the plight of Romanian farmers during this summer’s drought, one farmer ploughed an appeal into his barren fields. The Dobrogea region of the country that includes the Danube River Delta has lost 85 percent of farmland crops. Since last September, the region has received a mere quarter of its average rainfall and in some parts of the country the number of days reaching the maximum seasonal temperature of 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) rose by 15 days. The 2020 maize crop yield is expected to fall by 13 percent over last year and barley by 8.2 percent. The federal government could permit some regions to declare a state of emergency, exempting farmers from some contractual obligations.

Germany has upped its strategic coal reserves by 53 percent, citing droughts in 2018 and 2019 that dropped river levels, negatively impacting coal transport throughout the nation.

A third summer of drought has taken a toll on Germany’s trees including the 80,000 trees in the 14 parks managed by the Prussian Palaces and Gardens Foundation Berlin-Brandenburg. Experts are predicting a 20 percent loss of park trees this year due to drought and water rationing has been instituted in Brandenburg. The city of Berlin has created an adopt-a-tree initiative with an interactive platform enabling citizens to select a tree to water. Germany’s forests have sustained damages to 285,000 hectares. Scientists from the European Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Network estimate that the drought of 2018 contributed to an 18 percent loss of carbon dioxide absorption.

Low water levels on the Meuse River in France prompted a shutdown of two 1,450-megawatt nuclear power stations near the Belgium border in late August. Regulations require sufficient water for cooling at the site.

Lake Chaillexon in the Doubs region of eastern France has been reduced to a tiny stream running through the cracked lakebed, a victim of the summer drought. Boats sit like dead fish next to docks stretching into mud. In mid-September, the region’s rainfall for the year totaled just 560mm, far short of the 730 mm average. Water restrictions are in place.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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