Africa: Water surplus to persist in Sahel & E Africa

23 September 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2021 indicates widespread, intense water deficits across North Africa including many areas with exceptional anomalies. Mixed conditions of both deficit and surplus are also forecast as transitions occur (pink/purple).

Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast across the Sahel, reaching south into northern Nigeria where anomalies will be exceptional and southern Sudan where surpluses will be extreme.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202006-202105_12mo_twitter.png

Intense surpluses are forecast in Central African Republic in a large pocket surrounding the capital city of Bangui reaching into Democratic Republic of the Congo. In East Africa, surpluses are forecast from south central Ethiopia through western Kenya and eastern Uganda and eastern Tanzania. Anomalies will be exceptional in western Kenya and severe in Dodoma, Tanzania. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include central Somalia, coastal Guinea Bissau and eastern Guinea, and South Africa’s southwest coast.

Scattered deficits are expected in West Africa from western Guinea around the Gulf of Guinea. Deficits will be intense from south central Cameroon through Equatorial Guinea and western Gabon, and in southwestern Nigeria and Liberia’s southern tip. Severe deficits are forecast for Sierra Leone. On the other side of the continent along the southern Red Sea, deficits will reach exceptional intensity from southern Eritrea through Djibouti into Somaliland. Other areas of deficit include the central Congo River Basin, northern Ethiopia, pockets in the western corners of Angola and Namibia, and from northern Lesotho through South Africa to the Swaziland border.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through November indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably with exceptional deficits retreating overall. Deficits in North Africa will moderate with some scattered, intense pockets and transitional conditions. Deficits will be intense in pockets from southern Eritrea through Djibouti into Somaliland and on Angola’s southwestern coast. Areas with a forecast of moderate to severe deficit include southern Liberia, the central Congo River Basin, and northern Lesotho into South Africa.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202006-202105_3mo_twitter.png

Surpluses of varying intensity will persist across the Sahel. While shrinking, surpluses will remain widespread in East Africa from south central Ethiopia through western Kenya, eastern Uganda, and Tanzania. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in Tanzania’s eastern half. Other areas of surplus include a pocket on the southern border of Central African Republic; South Africa’s southwestern coast and from Eastern Cape into Orange Free State; and Madagascar’s northern tip.

From December 2020 through February 2021, anomalies throughout most of the continent will shrink, leaving nearly normal conditions in much of North Africa and also south of the Sahel. Moderate deficits will persist in the eastern Sahara, and exceptional deficits will emerge in Sierra Leone and northern Togo and Benin. In the Sahel, surpluses will persist in Chad and southern Sudan, but many areas will be in transition (pink/purple). Surpluses in East Africa will shrink considerably, leaving moderate pockets.

The forecast for the final quarter – March through May 2021 – indicates moderate deficits across North Africa with some more intense regions, particularly in eastern nations; surpluses and transitional conditions in the Sahel; and lingering surpluses in East Africa.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Flooding has been widespread across Africa’s Sahel region from Senegal to Sudan. During just one day in early September, Senegal’s capital Dakar got deluged with nearly a year’s worth of rain: 21 centimeters (8 inches). Six people died as water raced through roads that looked like rivers.

Sudan has declared a national emergency for the next three months after persistent rainfall brought the Nile River to flood stage in Khartoum, forcing a half million people to evacuate. The military was deployed to assist in rescue, flood control, and food distribution. Near Tuti Island where the White and Blue Niles meet, the river level reached its highest ever recorded. During this rainy season the death toll has risen to over 100. The Sudanese government will allocate US $2.73 million for flood relief.

Sixty people died in Niger after days of rain caused the Niger River to overflow sending water flooding into the capital, Niamey and inundating rice fields. Across the nation, floodwaters have destroyed nearly 32,000 houses and 5,768 hectares of farmland. As roadways became waterways and conditions persisted, some residents began boating to daily destinations.

Flooding in Nigeria left 450,000 hectares of rice submerged and 50,000 hectares of other crops. Crop loss is estimated at N5 billion (~US $13 million). Most of the destruction occurred in Kebbi State where heavy rainfall prompted officials to order dam releases. Eight people died and damage to infrastructure included the loss of six bridges.

In East Africa, persistent rainfall has brought the water level in the reservoir of the Turkwel Dam in Kenya to within 3.6 meters of overflowing as of 9 September. Around 300,000 people live in the river’s basin.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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