Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus forecast for C. America

25 June 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending February 2021 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in Mexico’s north-central states of Chihuahua and Coahuila. Anomalies will be severe to extreme in Coahuila, and anomalies of similar intensity are forecast in Nayarit on the central Pacific Coast.

ISciences_Mexico_Central_America_Caribbean_Composite_Adjusted_202003-202102_12mo_twitter.png

Deficits in central Baja California are expected to reach exceptional intensity while moderate deficits are forecast farther south on the Peninsula. Surpluses are forecast near Tijuana in Baja’s northwestern extreme and also in a large pocket on the mainland in northeastern Sonora where anomalies will reach exceptional intensity. Generally mild deficits are expected in central Mexico. Moderate surpluses are forecast in the center of the Yucatan Peninsula.

In Central America, surpluses of primarily moderate intensity are expected in pockets of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and western Panama. Surpluses in Costa Rica will be moderate to severe.

Surpluses are also expected in central Cuba, Port-au-Prince Bay in Haiti, and the central Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August indicates that water anomalies will shrink and downgrade considerably in Mexico with conditions normalizing in much of the country. Surpluses of varying intensity will persist in northeastern Sonora in the region of the Bavispe and Yaqui Rivers. Moderate deficits will emerge in the Baja Peninsula.

ISciences_Mexico_Central_America_Caribbean_Composite_Adjusted_202003-202102_3mo_twitter.png

In Central America, surpluses will shrink leaving moderate to severe pockets in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. Surpluses will remain widespread in Costa Rica and will intensify north of San Jose, becoming extreme. Deficits in the Caribbean will nearly disappear and some surpluses are forecast.

From September through November, normal conditions are forecast for much of Mexico with surpluses persisting in northeastern Sonora and moderate deficits emerging in southern Chihuahua. Moderate surpluses will re-emerge near Tijuana in the northeastern corner of Baja, with mild deficits elsewhere on the Peninsula. In Central America, surpluses will shrink overall and downgrade in Costa Rica. Surpluses will persist in the Bahamas and pockets of Cuba and Haiti. Some moderate deficits will emerge in Jamaica and in Haiti’s western tip.

The forecast for the final three months – December through February – indicates that deficits will intensify in Chihuahua, Mexico, and moderate deficits will emerge in Coahuila, Oaxaca, and southern Veracruz. Surpluses will retreat from Tijuana and will shrink in Sonora. Pockets of surplus will persist in Central America and the Caribbean.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Tropical Storm Cristobal hit Central America in early June before moving on to the Yucatán Peninsula, then heading north through the Gulf of Mexico.

Cristobal began as Tropical Storm Amanda when it roared out of the Pacific bringing up to 35 inches (90 centimeters) of rain to El Salvador and Guatemala, causing extensive damage. At least 17 deaths were reported and flooding and landslides sent 7,000 people into shelters, increasing the possibility of COVID-19 transmission amid a global pandemic. The Acelhuate River swept vehicles through the streets of San Salvador and the swollen Los Esclavos River in Cuilapa contributed to the death toll in Guatemala. El Savador will access some of its $389 million loan from the International Monetary Fund to address storm damage. Some parts of the Yucatán Peninsula received 25 inches (65 centimeters) of rain from Amanda.

Estimates for Mexico’s 2019/20 citrus are down due to drought, with orange production forecasts lowered by 45 percent. The orange crop is expected to be the lowest since the early 1990s.

The Pozo Azul Reservoir in Cuba’s southeastern province of Guantánamo is reportedly close to “dead volume,” a level at which no water can be drawn, and Los Asientos Reservoir is at half capacity. Drought in the region threatens crops in the Caujerí Valley. Experts say that this year Guantánamo has received merely a quarter of its historical average rainfall. And in early May, the water level at Cuba’s largest dam, the Zaza in Sancti Spíritus Province, measured just 12 percent.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags