Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in W Kazakhstan

24 June 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2021 indicates that surplus anomalies will dominate a large region in Russia from the Northern European Plain across the Urals through the Western Siberian Plain. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Vychegda Lowland west of the Urals and along the Severnaya Dvina River. Intense deficits are forecast along the Gulf of Ob; in the region of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River, a northern right tributary of the Yenisei River; north of Lake Baikal; and along the East Siberian Sea (not shown in image).

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Deficits are forecast in western Kazakhstan and some pockets in the south; the western half of Uzbekistan; northernmost Turkmenistan; the eastern Fergana Valley from Uzbekistan into Kyrgyzstan; and eastern Tajikistan. Anomalies will be exceptional on the northeastern Caspian coast. Intense surpluses are expected in northern Kazakhstan and along the Turkmen-Iran border. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast from southern Uzbekistan into western Tajikistan and in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August indicates that surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain through the Western Siberian Plain will shrink and downgrade. Exceptional anomalies will persist in the Vychegda Lowland, along the Severnaya Dvina River, and in the tundra region near the Kara Sea. Conditions on the Lower Volga River will normalize, transitioning from intense surplus. Intense deficits will emerge across the Gulf of Ob and in the Taz River region nearby. The Lower Yenisei region will begin to transition to deficit as deficits persist in its eastern tributary, the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River, and emerge in the PodkamennayaTunguska River region.

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In Kazakhstan, intense surpluses will persist in the north and moderate deficits in the west. Mild to moderate deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Surpluses will diminish in western Tajikistan and moderate deficits will emerge in the east. Some surpluses are expected in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

From September through November, surpluses will moderate on the Severnyaya Dvina River in Russia and persist in the Vychegda Lowland and in the Ob River Watershed. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the regions of the Lower Yenisei River, Taz River, and Tunguska Rivers. Deficits in western Kazakhstan will downgrade to mild or normal conditions. A pocket of moderate deficit is forecast in the south, and intense surpluses will persist in the north. Mild to moerate deficits or transitional conditions are expected in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, and surpluses in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

The forecast for the final months – December through February – indicates a forecast similar to the prior three months with deficits emerging in northwestern and central Kazakhstan and moderate surpluses emerging on the Volga River.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Uzbek government estimates that costs to recover from damages sustained after the breach of the Sardoba Dam in early May will be around 1.5 billion som (US $147 million) in Uzbekistan, and Kazakh officials expect damages on their side of the border to add $1 million. Six people died after heavy rainfall pushed the reservoir to its limits and officials opened overflow gates, flooding the Southern Golodnostepsky Canal, cotton fields, and villages. Experts say over half of the reservoir’s 922 million cubic meters of water was lost.

A border conflict over water access between residents of Chashma in the Uzbek enclave of Sokh and Chechme villagers in Kyrgyzstan has left one Kyrgyz man dead and several hundred people injured after the stone-throwing incident. When the conflict escalated, several buildings were set on fire and the district riot police were sent in. Sokh is Uzbek territory entirely enclosed by Kyrgyzstan but populated by ethnic Tajiks. In Tajik, “chashma” means “water spring.” The area is part of the fertile Ferghana Valley, rich agricultural land reaching through Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Water shortages in Sokh are not uncommon - water is brought in once a month. The recent skirmish highlights a complicated set of issues in the area and has drawn the attention of the Uzbek federal government which promised economic investment of $100 million.

When ice cream sales in Siberia go up 30 percent, you know something’s changing. Russia’s chief meteorologist reports that the past winter was Siberia’s hottest since record-keeping began 130 years ago. And in June, the temperature in Verkhoyansk six miles north of the Arctic circle hit 100.4 F (38 C), a Siberian record. Siberian silk moth larvae are enjoying the heat, eating more and eating longer, devouring forests and leaving them susceptible to wildfires. According to the head of the Forest Institute in Krasnoyarsk, the number of forest fires has doubled in 10 years, compromising the ability of the boreal forest to act as a carbon sink.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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