Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits forecast north of the Caspian Sea

29 April 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December indicates deficits in western Kazakhstan and its southern tip, Uzbekistan, northernmost Turkmenistan, and eastern Tajikistan. Anomalies will be exceptional in a broad path tracing Kazakhstan’s Caspian coast, downgrading as they reach farther inland. Deficits will also be exceptional in central Uzbekistan and the Fergana Valley in the east, and South Kazakhstan Province.

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Intense surpluses are expected in northern Kazakhstan and along the border of Turkmenistan and Iran. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast from eastern Kyrgyzstan into southeastern Kazakhstan.

In Russia, surplus anomalies will dominate a large region stretching from the Northern European Plain across the Urals through the Western Siberian Plain. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Vychedga Lowlands west of the Urals. Conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are forecast in many areas as transitions occur. Intense deficits are forecast in the region of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River, a right tributary of the Yenisei River, and in much of the Yenisei River’s Lower Basin including northwest and southeast of Lake Baikal.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates that surpluses in Northern European Russia will downgrade somewhat with fewer areas of exceptional surplus and some transitional areas emerging as conditions change (pink/purple). The extent of surplus will increase, however, reaching east into the Yenisei River Watershed where exceptional surpluses will emerge in much of the river’s lower and middle regions, and exceptional deficits in the upper basin. Surpluses will emerge in the eastern extent of the Central Siberian Plateau, transitioning from prior deficit. Deficits will emerge in Southern European Russia.

Central_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_202001-202012_3mo_twitter.png

Intense deficits are expected in western Kazakhstan north of the Caspian Sea and in southeastern Tajikistan. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in northern Kazakhstan and in Turkmenistan along parts of its southern border and in the southwest. Surpluses of lesser intensity are expected from eastern Kyrgystan into southeastern Kazakhstan.

From July through September, surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain through the Western Siberian Plateau will shrink considerably as a complex patchwork of water conditions develops. Anomalies include surpluses along the Arctic Ocean; deficits in the Urals; deficits in the Lower Ob River and surpluses in the Middle and Upper Ob regions; and, widespread deficits in the Upper and Middle Yenisei River Watershed and in the region of the Taz River. In Central Asia, surpluses will persist in northern Kazakhstan and eastern Kyrgyzstan. Deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Deficits in Kazakhstan near the Caspian Sea will moderate, though increasing somewhat.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates that anomalies region-wide will diminish somewhat. Surpluses will persist along the Arctic Ocean, in the Vychedga Lowlands, the Ob River Watershed and northern Kazakhstan. Deficits will persist in the region of the Yenisei’s eastern tributaries.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Russian agricultural forecasters have downgraded wheat production estimates by around 3 percent based on dry conditions in the south, the country’s primary wheat producing area. Soil moisture levels are low in Krasnodar and Rostov regions.

Rising waters along the Ishim River in North Kazakhstan flooded 2,300 summer cottages near Petropavlovsk and prohibited travel on several roads in the region. The river rose 22 centimeters (over 8.5 inches) at one point, and isolated one village at another point. Troops were deployed to bolster the riverbanks with sandbags.

Heavy rainfall in mid-April produced flooding in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, inundating roads and residential areas.

For the first time in 26 years, snow fell during April in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. A blanket of between 18 and 20 centimeters (7 to 8 inches) covered the capital.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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