Middle East: Intense water deficits in E Yemen & W Oman

27 March 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending November indicates widespread, intense water deficits covering much of the Arabian Peninsula including exceptional anomalies in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman.

Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for southern Iraq, intense surpluses in northern Iraq around Mosul, and conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) west of the Euphrates River as transitions occur.

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Exceptional surpluses are expected from central Syria to the north, moderating across the border into Turkey. Some pockets of surplus are also forecast along Turkey’s southeastern coast. Intense deficits are expected in Georgia north of Tbilisi.

In Iran, severe to exceptional surpluses are expected along the Caspian Sea Coast, transitioning along the Turkmen border. A large block of surplus is forecast along the central Iraq-Iran border well into western Iran. Some large blocks of surplus are forecast in southern Iranian provinces along the Persian Gulf and exceptional anomalies from the Strait of Hormuz leading into Kerman Province. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in the center of the country.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through May indicates that widespread surpluses in the region will shrink, though many areas of surplus are forecast. Exceptional surpluses are expected in central and northern Syria, moderating across the border into Turkey, and a pocket of exceptional surplus is forecast along Turkey’s eastern Black Sea Coast. Exceptional surpluses will persist around Mosul, Iraq. In Iran, severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in the north along the Caspian Sea Coast but will shrink along the border with Turkmenistan. A large block of surplus will persist along the Iraq-Iran border leading well into western Iran, though the intensity will downgrade slightly. Surpluses will also persist in the south with exceptional anomalies around the Strait of Hormuz leading into Kerman Province.

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On the Arabian Peninsula, Deficits will downgrade overall, but exceptional deficits are forecast from eastern Yemen into western Iran. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Saudi Arabia with a few areas reaching greater intensity in the center and also in the southeast where conditions will transition from prior surplus.

From June through August, surpluses will continue to shrink, though exceptional anomalies will persist around Mosul and pockets of southern Iran, and moderate anomalies will persist in western Iran. Many areas of previous surplus will begin to transition (pink/purple) including Syria, Iran’s northeastern coast, and parts of southern Iran. Deficits will emerge in much of central Iran and along the Persian Gulf; will intensify in Saudi Arabia, as exceptional anomalies increase; and will downgrade in Yemen and Oman, becoming merely mild. Generally mild deficits will emerge in nations along the eastern Mediterranean.

In the final quarter – September through November – some moderate surpluses will persist in western Iran. Deficits are forecast for central and northeastern Iran and southern Saudi Arabia.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
The perennially water-stressed Middle East is facing even greater pressure as the coronovirus pandemic spreads. Tehran’s water usage is 2.5 times the global average under normal conditions and with the COVID-19 pandemic hitting Iran, usage in the metropolitan area of over 8.5 million people has increased dramatically as citizens adopt frequent hand-washing to combat the spread of the disease. Tehran is home to 20 percent of the nation’s population and 45 percent of its industrial base, concentrating water demand in just 1.1 percent of Iran’s land area. Increased water usage in the capital region has led to shortages in some surrounding villages, and Tehran’s water authority has asked residents to limit water consumption to essential needs. In Mazandaran, a northern province on the Caspian Sea, water usage has gone up 40 percent in recent days.

Heavy rains produced widespread flooding in southwestern Iran’s Lorestan and Khuzestan Provinces in late February and into March, affecting 24,000 people. Over 300 bridges were damaged as well as many roads, cutting off some villages and producing gas outages. The potential for waterborne disease has added to the threat from the coronavirus outbreak.

Spring rains in Jordan taxed Amman’s water system and, fearing contamination, water authorities cut off the water supply temporarily, stoking public anxiety about water access during a recently declared coronavirus curfew. The government has dispatched emergency water tanks to the region.

Slow-onset climate change and recent drought are contributing to significant internal displacement in southern Iraq and abandonment of agricultural regions, according to a recent report by the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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