ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List March 2020

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST MARCH 2020

15 March 2020

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in December 2019 and running through November 2020 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast March 15, 2020 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through May indicates widespread water surpluses in the Northern Plains States and Upper Midwest, severe-to-exceptional in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Moderate surpluses are expected in Tennessee, the Carolinas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Areas of deficit include central Colorado, southeastern Texas, and northern California.

Canada: The forecast through May indicates surpluses from Ottawa to Montreal, and near Toronto and Calgary; and deficits around Winnipeg and Regina. Deficits will shrink in northern Quebec, but vast pockets of exceptional deficit will persist. Surpluses will increase in southern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through May indicates intense water surpluses in Sonora, Mexico, and surpluses of varying intensity in many regions of Central America. Deficits will increase in Chihuahua and Coahuila in northern Mexico and in the eastern Yucatan.

South America: The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably, but intense anomalies are forecast in French Guiana, Suriname, southern Venezuela, northern Amazonas, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Surpluses will emerge in Minas Gerais and Pernambuco, Brazil.

Europe: The forecast through May indicates that water surpluses will shrink in Europe though remain widespread in the U.K., Ireland, and northern European Russia, and will be intense in Ireland and Russia. Intense deficits are forecast for Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, western Ukraine, and eastern Bulgaria.

Africa: The forecast through May indicates water deficits of varying intensity across northern Africa while deficits in the Horn retreat. Surpluses are forecast for nations north of the Gulf of Guinea, pockets across the Sahel, and many regions of East Africa, particularly Tanzania and Kenya.

Middle East: The forecast through May indicates that widespread water surpluses will shrink, but surpluses will persist in Syria, near Mosul, and in Iran’s west, Caspian Sea Coast, and south. Deficits will downgrade on the Arabian Peninsula but will remain intense from eastern Yemen into Oman.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through May indicates widespread moderate-to-exceptional water surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain into the Western Siberian Plain. Exceptional deficits are forecast for the Central Siberian Plateau, north and southeast of Lake Baikal, and in western Kazakhstan along the Caspian coast.

South Asia: Widespread water surpluses are forecast to persist through May in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, northern Pakistan and along rivers, and eastern Afghanistan. Anomalies will be exceptional in several regions including along the Ganges, from Mumbai into Karnataka, and central Madhya Pradesh.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through May indicates that water deficits in Thailand and Cambodia will downgrade, though intense anomalies are forecast near Tonlé Sap. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Myanmar along the Irrawaddy River.

East Asia: The forecast through May indicates widespread water surpluses in the Yellow River Basin, the Upper Yangtze Basin, Tibet, and Northeast China. Intense deficits are forecast for southern Yunnan, Mongolia, and northern Honshu, Japan.

Australia & New Zealand:  The forecast through May indicates that water deficits will nearly disappear, persisting along Victoria’s central coast, in Tasmania, and in northern New Zealand. Surpluses will emerge in the Kimberley and re-emerge in pockets along Australia’s southeastern coast.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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