Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus forecast for Central America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus forecast for Central America

20 November 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending July 2020 indicates deficits in northern Baja, Mexico ranging from moderate to exceptional. Pockets of intense deficit are also forecast in Tamaulipas and Veracruz States on the Gulf. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast scattered across the bulk of Mexico and in the northern Yucatán.

Surpluses are expected along Mexico’s central Pacific Coast from Puerto Vallarta into Guerrero, and in a pocket around Monterrey in the northeastern state of Nuevo León.

In Central America, surpluses are expected in Guatemala, Belize, the southwestern corner of Honduras into El Salvador, southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and central Panama. Cuba can expect intense deficits in the west. Surpluses are forecast along Haiti’s western coast and in the Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2020 indicates that intense deficits along Mexico’s Gulf Coast will shrink and downgrade leaving nearly normal conditions in much of Veracruz State, though severe anomalies will persist in the northern region and nearby in Hidalgo and Querétaro. Severe deficits are also forecast for southeastern Chihuahua. Moderate to severe surpluses will persist in a pocket around Monterrey in Nuevo León and along the central Pacific Coast and will emerge in the Federal District and small pockets in the south.

Surpluses are forecast throughout much of Central America in Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, western Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. In the Caribbean, deficits will nearly disappear; surpluses are expected in the central Bahamas, along Haiti’s western coast spreading from Port-au-Prince, and in central Cuba.

From February through April 2020, exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Baja, Mexico, and Mexico’s central Pacific Coast will begin to transition from surplus to exceptional deficit. Primarily moderate deficits are forecast for southeastern Chihuahua and northern Yucatán. Surpluses will persist around Monterrey in Nuevo León, the Federal District, and pockets of the south. Surpluses will shrink somewhat in Central America, with conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) in Guatemala and El Salvador as transitions occur. Deficits will become merely mild in western Cuba; surpluses will persist in central Cuba, central Bahamas, and around Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

The forecast for the final three months – May through July 2020 – indicates near-normal conditions in much of Mexico with moderate deficits in Baja. A few pockets of surplus are forecast in southern Central America and the Caribbean.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
At the beginning of November, water levels at Cuba’s Coca-Zarza-Bacuranao dam system, which serves the eastern Havana area, was at just 30 percent capacity, prompting the national water management entity to reduce per second pumping by 30 percent.

Rainfall levels in Veracruz State, Mexico were among the lowest in the republic at the end of October, with 52 municipalities in extreme drought, 66 in severe drought, and 65 in moderate drought according to CONAGUA, the national water commission.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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