Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade through February though intense deficits are forecast for Yemen’s western and eastern thirds and severe deficits in Saudi Arabia’s large south-central region of Riyadh. Surpluses will persist in western Iran north of the Red Sea and across the border into Iraq and will remain intense. Surpluses are also forecast along Iran’s western Caspian Sea coast; north of Kirkuk, Iraq; and in eastern Turkey.
Middle East: Water deficits forecast to decrease
Water deficits are expected to shrink and downgrade significantly through January with conditions approaching normal in Iraq, Syria, northeastern Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Deficits will intensify in Georgia, and extreme deficits will emerge on the Kura River in Azerbaijan. Intense deficits are also forecast for southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and, to a lesser degree, western Turkey and along Turkey’s Black Sea coast.
Middle East: Exceptional water deficits forecast for Lebanon, Israel, & West Bank
The forecast through August indicates that exceptional water deficits in the northern Arabian Peninsula will shrink but deficits overall in the Peninsula will be widespread. Exceptional deficits are forecast for Lebanon, Israel, and West Bank. Deficits of varying severity are forecast throughout Turkey and Syria, though deficits in western Turkey will downgrade from exceptional. In southern Iran deficits will become more severe, reaching exceptional intensity in Kerman and neighboring provinces.
Middle East: Water deficits to increase in Turkey, emerge in Gaza, West Bank, & Israel
Over the next few months exceptional water deficits will diminish overall in the region but persist in southern Iraq, Kuwait, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Deficits will spread in Turkey, and intense deficits will emerge in Gaza, Israel, West Bank, and Lebanon. After July, deficits in Turkey will moderate overall, but deficits of varying severity are forecast for many parts of the region and are expected to be especially intense in Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, southern Iran, and West Bank.
Middle East: Exceptional water deficits retreat, but severe deficits remain
Exceptional water deficits are forecast to nearly disappear after September leaving primarily moderate or severe deficits across the region. However, more intense deficits are expected in Georgia; along Turkey’s northern coast; surrounding the city of Basrah, Iraq; western Yazd Province, Iran; and eastern Yemen. Severe deficits are forecast for the Euphrates River. Overall, water deficits will continue to diminish through March, with mild deficits throughout much of the region. Severe deficits will continue to emerge in western Georgia and western Turkey.