Through October, water surpluses will persist with intensity in western Myanmar, retreat from northwestern Thailand, downgrade slightly in Laos and Vietnam, shrink considerably in the Philippines, and nearly disappear in Malaysia and Indonesia. Exceptional surpluses are forecast along the Mekong River. Deficits north of Tonle Sap in Cambodia will intensify. Deficits are also forecast for the Malay Peninsula, western Indonesian Borneo, southern Sumatra, Java, Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea.
Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Widespread deficits forecast for much of Borneo & New Guinea
The forecast indicates a transition away from widespread, intense water surplus to deficit. Deficits are forecast for peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, Sulawesi, New Guinea, Java, pockets in Sumatra, and eastern Mindanao. Deficits will diminish somewhat in northwestern Cambodia, increase in southeastern Thailand, and emerge in Vietnam east of Hanoi and in central Myanmar. Surpluses are forecast for western and southern Myanmar, northern Laos, northwestern Vietnam, eastern Cambodia into Vietnam, central Philippines, and East Nusa Tenggara.
Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Exceptional deficits forecast for Peninsular Malaysia
The forecast indicates a transition away from water surplus to deficit. Deficits are forecast for mainland Southeast Asia, Peninsular Malaysia, northern Sumatra, and Luzon and Mindanao in the Philippines; deficits may be exceptional in Peninsular Malaysia. Exceptional deficits in Cambodia will shrink considerably but persist in a pocket northeast of Tonlé Sap. Severe deficits are forecast for Vietnam’s Mekong Delta region. Surpluses are forecast for central Philippines. After June, anomalies in the region will downgrade though severe deficits will continue in Peninsular Malaysia.
Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surplus forecast for Myanmar, Vietnam, Philippines
Cambodia continues to stand out through May in Southeast Asia with exceptional water deficit in the west. Surpluses are forecast for much of the rest of Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, and may be especially intense in western Myanmar, around the Gulf of Tonkin, central Philippines, and Brunei. Deficits will emerge in the southern tip of Sumatra and into Java, but are expected to nearly disappear in Papua New Guinea, persisting mainly around the Gulf of Papua. After May, surpluses in the region will retreat and Cambodia will return to near-normal conditions.
Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water deficits persist in Cambodia
Though water deficits persist in western Cambodia and Papua New Guinea, surpluses have dominated the rest of the region but will gradually transition to moderate deficit. Through March, exceptional surpluses are forecast in Myanmar, northern Laos, and northern Vietnam; less intense surpluses in southern Laos, eastern Cambodia, southern Vietnam, the Philippines, and Sumatra; and exceptional deficits in western Cambodia and northern Papua New Guinea. Mild deficits will emerge in Indonesia, and continue to emerge overall after March.