Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of ...

Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of surpluses persist throughout SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, ...

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit. 

South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, Bangladesh
Middle East
ISciences staff
Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue ...

Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus. 

Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue in S countries
Central Asia & Russia
ISciences staff
Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near Lake Baikal
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits will mostly resolve in northern, southern, and central countries, but will persist in the Horn of Africa. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to remain. 

Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Antalya

Middle East: Intense deficits to persist on the Arabian Peninsula

Middle East: Intense deficits to persist on the Arabian Peninsula

The near-term forecast through November indicates a significant retreat of exceptional deficits on the Arabian Peninsula though deficits will continue to emerge, reaching south into much of Yemen and southern Oman. Deficits in the Levant will downgrade to moderate. Exceptional deficits in Iraq west of the Euphrates are expected to become slightly less intense except in the south. Deficits will emerge throughout much of the eastern two-thirds of Iran. After November exceptional deficits are forecast to nearly disappear though widespread deficits of lesser intensity will continue to emerge.

Middle East: Water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula will moderate after October

Middle East: Water deficits on the Arabian Peninsula will moderate after October

Exceptional water deficits in the Middle East are forecast to nearly disappear after October though widespread deficits of lesser intensity will continue to emerge. Until then, however, extreme to exceptional deficits will blanket much of the Arabian Peninsula, Syria, Jordan, Iraq west of the Euphrates, much of Georgia, and a pocket of southwestern Turkey surrounding Antalya. After October significant deficits remain in the forecast for Georgia, northern Saudi Arabia, Iraq west of the Euphrates, pockets of central Iran, and southwestern and eastern Yemen. 

Middle East: Widespread intense deficits persist on the Arabian Peninsula

Middle East: Widespread intense deficits persist on the Arabian Peninsula

Widespread intense water deficits are forecast for the Arabian Peninsula through September, gradually diminishing in extent and severity thereafter. From July through September exceptional deficits will persist across central Saudi Arabia, in southern Iraq, and in Lebanon, and severe to extreme deficits are forecast for Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Iraq west of the Euphrates, and North Khorasan, Iran. Surpluses in Fars and near Tehran, Iran will transition to conditions of both deficit and surplus, receding by early next year. Surpluses along the northern Iran/Iraq border will persist through December, and a pocket of exceptional surplus in central Oman will persist through March 2018.

Middle East: Exceptional water deficits forecast for the Arabian Peninsula

Middle East: Exceptional water deficits forecast for the Arabian Peninsula

Exceptional water deficits spanning the Arabian Peninsula are expected to continue through November affecting southern Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, all of Yemen, and most of Oman. Conditions are expected to moderate in early 2018. Moderate to exceptional surpluses in northern Iraq extending into Iran should subside by December. Exceptional surpluses in south central Iran are expected to persist through the forecast period before moderating between December and February 2018. A pocket of exceptional surplus in central Oman persists throughout the forecast period into 2018.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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