In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.

Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan. 

Exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and southeastern China.

Widespread exceptional deficits in the Middle East will downgrade in size, but remain in portions of the Levant, the Arabian Peninsula, and Iran.  

Severe to exceptional deficits will occur throughout most of eastern Europe. Severe to exceptional surpluses in western Europe are expected to dissipate.

While most extreme to exceptional surpluses in Maritime Southeast Asia will resolve, regions of Indonesia and the Philippines will observe surpluses of varying intensity. Moderate to extreme deficits are expected in regions of Sumatra, as well as northern Laos and Vietnam. 

Severe to extreme surpluses will continue in areas of Queensland. Deficits are expected to occur in southern Australia, Tasmania, and New Zealand.