The July through September forecast shows the near absence of widespread surpluses observed in prior months. However, exceptional surpluses are forecast for western Myanmar; northern Prachuap Khiri Khan Province, Thailand; the extreme southeastern region of Sulawesi; and Flores Island in Indonesia. Severe to exceptional deficits are indicated in much of Cambodia, in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, and in central Papua New Guinea. In the October-December timeframe moderate deficits are indicated in many parts of the region, and thereafter deficits in Southeast Asia may intensity.
*Special Topics, Proof Point, East Asia
In this new series, we examine recent prolonged drought in the Yangtze River Basin, its impact on the affected regions, and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts in East Asia.
Central Asia & Russia
Exceptional deficits will spread throughout the Russian Plain, northern coastal Russia, and regions near Lake Baikal. Surpluses are expected in some portions of northern Russia and north-central Kazakhstan.
Middle East
Widespread exceptional deficits in the Middle East will downgrade in size, but remain in portions of the Levant, the Arabian Peninsula, and Iran.
