Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of ...

Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of surpluses persist throughout SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, ...

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit. 

South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, Bangladesh
Middle East
ISciences staff
Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue ...

Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus. 

Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue in S countries
Central Asia & Russia
ISciences staff
Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near Lake Baikal
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits will mostly resolve in northern, southern, and central countries, but will persist in the Horn of Africa. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to remain. 

Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Southeast Asia & Pacific

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surplus forecast for Myanmar, Vietnam, Philippines

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surplus forecast for Myanmar, Vietnam, Philippines

Cambodia continues to stand out through May in Southeast Asia with exceptional water deficit in the west. Surpluses are forecast for much of the rest of Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, and may be especially intense in western Myanmar, around the Gulf of Tonkin, central Philippines, and Brunei. Deficits will emerge in the southern tip of Sumatra and into Java, but are expected to nearly disappear in Papua New Guinea, persisting mainly around the Gulf of Papua. After May, surpluses in the region will retreat and Cambodia will return to near-normal conditions.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits in Cambodia to abate after April

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits in Cambodia to abate after April

Exceptional water deficits will persist in western Cambodia through April. Deficits of varying severity are expected in Sumatra, Java, western Borneo, and Papua New Guinea. Intense surpluses are forecast for western and eastern Myanmar, northern Laos, along the Mekong River until it reaches Cambodia, and central Philippines. Surpluses are also forecast for Vietnam, pockets of Thailand, Brunei, and northeastern Borneo. After April, surpluses will retreat, Cambodia will transition to near-normal, and deficits are expected in Malaysia, Sumatra, and western Borneo. 

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water deficits persist in Cambodia

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water deficits persist in Cambodia

Though water deficits persist in western Cambodia and Papua New Guinea, surpluses have dominated the rest of the region but will gradually transition to moderate deficit. Through March, exceptional surpluses are forecast in Myanmar, northern Laos, and northern Vietnam; less intense surpluses in southern Laos, eastern Cambodia, southern Vietnam, the Philippines, and Sumatra; and exceptional deficits in western Cambodia and northern Papua New Guinea. Mild deficits will emerge in Indonesia, and continue to emerge overall after March. 

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water surpluses to persist in Vietnam

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water surpluses to persist in Vietnam

The forecast over the next six month indicates a gradual transition from predominantly surplus conditions to deficit, though western Cambodia and Papua New Guinea stand in contrast with current deficit conditions persisting throughout the period. In the near-term through February surpluses will diminish in Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, and Papua, but will persist in Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam. After February deficits will emerge throughout Malaysia and Indonesia, diminish in western Cambodia, and moderate in Papua New Guinea.

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water deficits to persist in W Cambodia

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Intense water deficits to persist in W Cambodia

The forecast indicates a gradual transition from predominantly surplus conditions to deficit, with Cambodia and eastern Papua New Guinea showing deficit conditions throughout. Through January surpluses will begin to retreat from Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Papua but will persist with intensity in Southeast Asia. Moderate deficits will emerge in southern Thailand and around the Java Sea. After January severe deficits will begin to emerge in Malaysia and Indonesia and surpluses in Southeast Asia will begin to retreat. 

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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