Australia & New Zealand
ISciences staff
Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to persist ...

Widespread extreme to exceptional surpluses will dissipate in northern regions of Australia, as will exceptional deficits in several regions of the continent. Severe to extreme surpluses will persist in isolated regions of Western Australia and Northern Territory. 

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to persist in Western Australia, Northern Territory
Canada
ISciences staff
Canada: Deficits remain in Canadian Shield, ...

Exceptional deficits will remain widespread in several areas of the Canadian Shield and Atlantic regions. Exceptional surplus is anticipated in much of the Arctic Region. 

Canada: Deficits remain in Canadian Shield, Atlantic regions
United States
ISciences staff
United States: Deficits to occur in SW, N, NE ...

Widespread deficits of varying intensity will occur in the southwest, northern, and northeastern states. Severe to extreme surpluses will remain in Florida, as well as in most noncontiguous states.  

United States: Deficits to occur in SW, N, NE states
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus persists in North-central, ...

extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in north-central and south-central regions of India. Exceptional surpluses are expected to emerge in eastern regions of the country, and in some areas of Nepal and Bangladesh. Extreme to exceptional deficits will expand in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

South Asia: Surplus persists in North-central, south-central India
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits throughout Africa will persist in northwestern, northern, and central countries. Surpluses will remain along the Sahel.

Africa: Surpluses continue along the Sahel

Meghalaya

South Asia: Intense water deficits to persist in central India

South Asia: Intense water deficits to persist in central India

Intense water deficits are forecast to persist in central India and western Karnataka through April 2018. In the near-term through January, deficits will continue to emerge across India’s northern half and may be exceptional in Haryana and Punjab; moderate deficits are forecast for Afghanistan and Pakistan. After January deficits will moderate except in central India and western Karnataka. Surpluses reaching exceptional severity are forecast through April in Bangladesh and Indian states to the east, as well as western Bhutan, Nepal, West Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh, and Sri Lanka.

South Asia: Water surpluses forecast to persist in Bangladesh and Nepal

South Asia: Water surpluses forecast to persist in Bangladesh and Nepal

The near-term forecast through October indicates that exceptional deficits will nearly disappear in India but moderate to severe deficits will continue to emerge, covering much of the north/south extent of the country. Surpluses are forecast for Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, West Bengal, and Mizoram. Deficits are forecast for southern Afghanistan, central and southern Pakistan, and eastern Bhutan. Exceptional surpluses will continue to emerge in much of Bangladesh and central Nepal. Deficits in Sri Lanka will ameliorate, leaving moderate deficits in the east. Beyond October primarily moderate deficits will continue to emerge in central India through April 2018.

South Asia: Water deficits forecast for Madhya Pradesh through Chhattisgarh

South Asia: Water deficits forecast for Madhya Pradesh through Chhattisgarh

The forecast through September indicates the emergence of moderate to extreme water deficits throughout much of India, which may be most intense from Madhya Pradesh to Odisha, and from southern Maharashtra down through Karnataka into Tamil Nadu. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected to persist in southwestern Afghanistan. Surpluses are forecast east of Kabul, Afghanistan, along the Indus River north of Islamabad, northeastern Jammu and Kashmir, along the Gandaki River in Nepal, and in Bangladesh. From October through December primarily moderate deficits are forecast for India’s northern half, and near-normal conditions in the south. In early 2018 intense deficits may develop in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

South Asia: Some water surplus to persist in Bangladesh; deficits in Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand

South Asia: Some water surplus to persist in Bangladesh; deficits in Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand

In the June through August forecast period water conditions are largely moderate across the sub-continent. Moderate to severe water deficits may develop in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the north of India and Tamil Nadu in the south. Surplus flows are expected in the Indus River and moderate to severe surpluses may persist over Bangladesh. Conditions moderate in the mid forecast period though surpluses may develop in Jammu & Kashmir September through February 2018 and exceptional deficits may develop in south and central Gujarat in the final forecast period extending into 2018.  

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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